Nine years on from the EU referendum, it turns out that predictions of the disastrous impact Brexit would have on the UK economy were pretty much spot on.
Today, 23rd June, marks nine years since that fateful day in 2016, when 51.9% of the UK decided the country should ditch its closest trading partner. And slowly but surely, over those nine years, that decision has shown itself to be exactly what many warned it would be.
A forecasting audit has found that leaving the European Union has blown a £40bn tax hole in the UK’s public finances, which is more or less what the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted would happen.
READ MORE: Time to Brejoin? Most voters now support referendum to reverse Brexit – YouGov
The OBR had forecast that declining investment and trade volumes would result in a 4% loss in the UK’s long-run productivity post-Brexit.
This is the equivalent of a £40bn tax loss for the exchequer between 2019 and 2024. Over the same period, the government raised taxes by £100bn.
John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, carried out the analysis of the OBR’s prediction. He told the Times that a “large chunk” of these tax rises would not have been required had the UK remained in the EU or even “chosen a softer form of Brexit.”
And it doesn’t seem like the pain is over yet, with the OBR saying it would take 15 years for the full impact of Brexit to be felt, predicting a 15% drop in trade volumes compared to if the UK had stayed in Europe.
RELATED: 28 Years Later director draws parallels between Brexit and his zombie apocalypse film
Springford said predictions of Brexit’s impact on the UK economy had “been borne out” and that it was “undeniable” how Brexit had hurt the UK’s economic growth prospects.
The findings make for difficult reading at a time when Keir Starmer’s government is desperate to boost productivity and fix public finances.
Earlier this year, the government agreed a ‘reset’ deal with the EU which will align UK food regulations with the bloc. Whilst this is expected to have a limited economic effect in the immediate future, it is hoped by many that it marks the start of closer ties and trade with the EU.