Politics is a pretty simple game sometimes. For all the talk of policies, manifestos and Machiavellian manoeuvrings, a lot of the time it simply comes down a popularity contest.
This is why a large part of the Labour party want Andy Burnham to be leader. Not necessarily because of any particular policy or vision, but because they reckon he will be more popular with voters than Keir Starmer is.
Some polling has shown this to be the case for Burnham in the past, with the Greater Manchester Mayor coming out on top against other British politicians when it comes to favourability.
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But now, new polling has looked at whether this would actually translate into votes for Labour – and the results are dramatic.
For over a year now, Labour have languished behind Reform in the polls and have on several occasions found themselves behind the Tories and the Greens as well.
But if Burnham was the party leader, this could be flipped on its head.
New hypothetical polling from More In Common has found that Labour jump to the top of the polls when voters are asked how they would vote if Burnham was leader of the party.
The latest data from the pollster has Labour in second on 22%, seven points behind Reform (29%).
But when the hypothetical scenario of Burnham being Labour leader is put to voters, the party see an eight-point jump in support (30%), enough to overtake Reform whose support drops by two points (22%).
Meanwhile, a Burnham-led Labour could be bad news for the Greens, who see their support drop by four points (7%) in this hypothetical polling, putting them in fifth.
Of course, this is polling of a hypothetical scenario. There are still plenty of hurdles for Burnham to jump over before becoming Labour leader, and even then it is impossible to know what might happen if his premiership becomes a reality.
As More in Common’s Luke Tryl explained, “things change once they become reality,” pointing to Your Party as proof of this.
But he added that the “size of the shift is striking.”
The polling comes ahead of the crunch Makerfield by-election next month, in which Burnham will stand as the Labour candidate.
This has provided a route back to Westminster for the Greater Manchester Mayor, who is widely expected to then challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership should he manage to become an MP.
However, Reform look like they’ll present a real challenge to Burnham and Labour in the pro-Leave constituency, where the right-wing party had big success at the local elections this month.