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Home News

‘Here is why I’m freaking out’ – Russian foreign policy academic’s thread makes for grim reading

"Watching Putin's speech right now I no longer think there will be meaningful de-escalation," she said.

Joe Mellor by Joe Mellor
2022-02-23 15:25
in News
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I doubt there is anyone who isn’t highly concerned about the Ukraine/Russia crisis, but when an assistant professor in Russian foreign policy starts a thread with ‘Here is why I’m freaking out,’ it is time to take notice.

World leaders are seeking to back up their tough words over Russia’s aggression against Ukraine by announcing financial sanctions, trade and travel bans and other measures meant to pressure Moscow to pull back from the brink of war.

But even as they ramped up penalties, nations in Asia and the Pacific also prepared for the possibility of economic pain, in the form of cuts to traditional energy and grain supply lines, and also retaliation from Russian cyberattacks.

“We can’t have some suggestion that Russia has some just case here that they’re prosecuting. They’re behaving like thugs and bullies, and they should be called out as thugs and bullies,” Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.

Thread

Dr Lisa Gaufman, assistant professor at the University of Groningen who specialises in Russian foreign policy and social networks, posted a troubling thread outlining her concerns about the ongoing escalation of tensions.

She said: “I have refrained from posting extended takes on Russia-Ukraine situation for ethical reasons. However, watching Putin’s speech right now I no longer think there will be meaningful de-escalation. Here is why I am freaking out.”

It is a must-read to understand Putin’s motivations and his lurch to the far-right.

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Read it in full below:

1.

I have refrained from posting extended takes on Russia-Ukraine situation for ethical reasons. However, watching Putin's speech right now I no longer think there will be meaningful de-escalation. Here is why I'am freaking out, a 🧵

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

2.

I will not go back all the way to Bolsheviks like Putin, but his more recent dislike of Ukraine probably started around the Orange revolution in Ukraine – hence the experiments with the Nashi movement, first deployment of the St. George ribbon – things that come in handy in 2014

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

3.

orange revolution was framed as a Western plot to overthrow a Russia-friendly regime, as "a crowbar" to get to Russia and to change regime in Moscow

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

4.

Fast forward to Euromaidan: Putin is getting scared, especially given that at that point in time Sevastopol was leased from Ukraine and Russia still does not have any warm ports to host its Navy. Crimea takeovers in case of Russia unfriendly Ukr gov were in the works 4 a while

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

5.

This is also thew point in 2013 I started monitoring Russian social media for their perception of the Ukraine crisis. Apart from an insane amount of dehumanisation rhetoric, this is the kind of "choices" Ukrainians faced, according to Russians: pic.twitter.com/ZK3DgWh575

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

6.

You probably noticed Hitler, drugs and gay people, and that's how social media users saw the dangers of the Association Agreement with the EU. Fascism, however, played the most important role in Rus gov legitimation effort

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

7.

I am not going to debate the role of the far-right groups in Euromaidan, but the Russian media only saw them as the driving force behind it & behind the entire country. In the graph below, u can see the insane amount of "fascism" use on Russian media. The peak – Crimea annexation pic.twitter.com/xCFM752fBc

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

8.

essentially, Russian intervention in Crimea and beyond was legitimised as an attempt to save Russian-speakers from physical extermination, just like in World War II, and Ukrainians were represented as Nazis. A lot of people in Russia believed that

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

9.

Hence the use of St-George's ribbon: to create a visual continuity with the Great Patriotic War (WW2 in Russian) and to frame anybody who opposed pro-Kremlin Ukraine policy as a fascist who is spitting on their grandparents' graves

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

10.

The fact that Putin (and a lot of Russians) don't believe in Ukrainian statehood is widespread. Just compare these quotes with today's speech:

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

11.

‘Still, we know from history that a country like Ukraine in its present borders, never existed. Vladimir Lenin with his beautiful pencil and national policies , together with Stalin , in fact, created a state within its current borders’ (Pervyi Kanal, 26 February 2014).

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

12.

‘Still, we know from history that a country like Ukraine in its present borders, never existed. Vladimir Lenin with his beautiful pencil and national policies , together with Stalin , in fact, created a state within its current borders’ (Pervyi Kanal, 26 February 2014).

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

13.

"Ukraine doesn’t exist. This puppet state today, failed state, and the entire responsibility for that currently lies with the United States" (Pervyi Kanal, 18 July 2014)

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

14.

"The United States invested $ 5 billion in “Ukraine's aspiration for democracy”. But the main prize is not Ukraine, it’s Moscow, Maidan on the Red Square "(Pervyi Kanal, 9 March, 2015)

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

15.

Here is what social media had to say about it:
Ukraine as a loose woman, who sells herself to the ‘Atlantic syndicate of thieves’ and ‘international community of perverts’
A whore who ‘dragged a n***** to our home’

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

16.

The prostitute narrative is a more extreme version of what Putin said today. But essentially it's the same: below is a meme from Antimaidan group in 2014 where Ukraine is called a Polish-Hungarian whore. pic.twitter.com/ZEZ9gjw6kH

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

17.

After 2014-2015 things have calmed down both on mainstream and social media. There were still occasional flares – still remember Antimaidan and Girkin pages celebrating the shooting down of MH17 which they thought was a Ukrainian plane.

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

18.

I started getting worried again in March and April 2021: Russian mainstream media started showing again pretty disturbing footage from Donbas where they insisted that Ukrainian forces were killings children pic.twitter.com/j3QHCytaVz

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

19.

The fascism rhetoric was much less visible, but the term "genocide" started to make rounds (below) pic.twitter.com/YBroiJfiPf

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

20.

here's what social media have to say about what they think about Ukraine's interests:

"Like it or don't, you're fucked, my beauty" (play on Putin's rape joke) pic.twitter.com/KuMp50omvP

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

21.

And here is some more social media reactions from VK: some still believe that Ukrainians are fascists (or gay people – which is an insult in their book), some are happy about Russia's decisive action re recognition of DNR and LNR pic.twitter.com/wHISiinLWk

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

22.

I was hoping that it would not come to this. Russians were getting desensitised with Ukraine stuff and not buying the fact that a fascist state would elect a Jewish Russian-speaking President. Before Zelensky's election, Russian social media were sure that Poroshenko would win

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

23.

In December 2021 it got worse again. More people tuned into Putin's December press conference expecting a war announcement. Nothing happened: before New Year break it was unlikely. February, however, with the Crimea anniversary and fatherland defender's day (23) – better optics

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

24.

I still don't think that the majority of Russians buy all this stuff. The reactions I cited are from a jingoistic group that are laser-focused on Ukraine and Russian prowess. The majority don't want to see Kyiv bombed. The question is, whether Putin cares about this or not.

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

25.

I don't know what happens next. Probably with the recognition of DNR and LNR, an Abkhazia and N. Ossetia scenario is coming into play. I hate this timeline. End of 🧵

— Dr. Lisa Gaufman (@lisas_research) February 21, 2022

Related: Hundreds of pupils to form human chain over Romania-Ukraine border

Tags: Russia

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