It’s almost undeniable now that Donald Trump’s White House is engaging in insider trading as more evidence of suspicious patterns are found.
Throughout Trump’s second term in office, rumours have swirled that people are managing to make a quick – and significant – buck thanks to having prior knowledge of major announcements the president is going to make.
The war in Iran has crystallised these accusations. Last month for example, hundreds of millions were bet on oil markets just minutes before Trump said the US would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
In the 15 minutes before Trump’s post, some $580mn in oil bets were placed by traders, who quickly made huge sums of money as oil prices fell and stocks bounced, raising the suspicions of market experts.
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Now, an investigation by the BBC has identified a consistent pattern of trading spikes in the hours and minutes before Trump fires off another Truth Social post or conducts another media interview.
After analysing market data, the BBC identified two clear examples from the Iran war when the US president had declared a resolution to hostilities was imminent.
“On both occasions, the price of oil dropped significantly – and in each case, oil trades spiked minutes before the information was made public,” business reporter Nick Marsh said.
“Analysts say that millions of dollars would have been made predicting the dip.”
In its investigation, the BBC highlighted the five most significant examples of market spikes in the moments before Trump statements.
Along with four moments from the conflict with Iran, the broadcaster also pointed out a surge in bets placed on online prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
One Polymarket user placed a huge sum of $32,500 between 30 December and 2 January on Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro being out of office by the end of January 2026.
On January 3, Maduro was captured by US special forces and the Polymarket user, Burdensome-Mix – who had only created their account in December 2025 – won $436,000.
The White House has previously denied allegations of insider trading, which is illegal in the US, including for US government officials.
A report in the Guardian over the weekend highlighted sixteen bets making $100,000 each for accurately predicting the timing of US airstrikes on Iran.
Whether it’s on financial markets or online prediction sites, the evidence is mounting that some are managing to get information ahead of time on matters, and are making millions as a result.
However, allegations of insider trading are very difficult to prove. Paul Oudin, a professor at the ESSEC Business School who specialised in financial regulation law, told the BBC a prosecution won’t be carried out if “they can’t figure out who the source of information is.”
“You can have massive trades on a financial instrument that clearly show that someone was privy to what Donald Trump was about to declare,” he said.
“Yet there is a strong chance that no-one will be prosecuted.”
Whether anyone is prosecuted or not, there’s little denying that this could well be one of the biggest insider trading scandals in history.