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This is how the electoral map would have looked if Reform hadn’t fielded any candidates

The presence of Nigel Farage's Reform UK was widely believed to have split the vote among would-be Tory voters.

Jack Peat by Jack Peat
2024-07-10 15:36
in Politics
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The Labour Party would have still won a sizeable majority had Reform UK not fielded any candidates in the 2024 General Election, analysis shows.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party romped home with 412 seats in the election with the Conservatives returning just 121 MPs, the worst result in the history of the party.

The presence of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party, which received more than four million votes, was a major headache for Rishi Sunak throughout the campaign and is widely believed to have split the vote among would-be Tory supporters.

But a new election map suggests this might not necessarily be the case.

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Taking Reform UK out of the picture would still have handed Labour a sizeable election win, albeit with a slightly reduced majority (120).

It would have also likely resulted in more close-call contests, with Penny Mordaunt retaining her seat.

The Tories would have remained a political force in Wales, where they have been wiped out at the election, and increased the number of seats they received in Scotland.

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Here’s how the map looks in full:

I went through each seat from the election to see how the results would change if Reform UK hadn't stood any candidates and the result (to my surprise) didn't change quite as dramatically as I thought they would:

LAB: 384 (-27)
CON: 162 (+41)
LDM: 64 (-8)
SNP: 7 (-2) pic.twitter.com/YQjD34g3us

— liv 🔶🏳️‍🌈 (@liveraldemocrat) July 10, 2024

Related: Bust furlough firm that listed Sunak’s wife among its directors linked to Reform UK

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