You think there’d be a lot less moaning, wouldn’t you? Reform have topped political opinion polls consistently over the last year or so. They have performed very well in local elections, and become an immutable part of the public discourse. But is Nigel Farage happy? Is he b******s…
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New YouGov poll shows the gap closing on Reform
On Wednesday, YouGov – widely considered to be one of the most accurate pollsters in the UK – released their weekly voting intention figures, which found that Reform’s once large lead at the top of the polls has been almost wiped out.
With just six points separating Reform in first (23%) and Labour in fourth (17%), there are now four parties in and around 20% according to YouGov, which includes the Green Party and the Conservatives tied in second place (19%).
Farage cries foul over polling data
These figures will add fire to the fuel behind claims that Reform’s popularity has at best stalled, whilst the Greens’ show no signs of going away and the ‘traditional’ two parties show signs of recovery. However, Nigel Farage has responded to this by chucking his toys out of the pram…
“Reform are strong in all of the polls except for those conducted by YouGov. They are using bizarre adjustments to suppress the true figures. No wonder their share price has fallen by over 80 percent in recent years!” | Nigel Farage
Look away now, Nigel! Five polls show dipping, stalling support for Reform
Trump impression aside, Farage simply isn’t buying the YouGov numbers. He instead pointed to another pollster – More In Common – which puts Reform at 30%, ahead of second-placed Labour on 22%. Well, if you want to look elsewhere Nigel, we’ve got a few suggestions.
Five other pollsters have also uploaded their public sentiment data within the last eight days. Some are more modest than most, but all show a dip in support for Reform at various intervals. The MP for Clacton might want to take a deep, calming breath before he sees this.
The most alarming slide for Reform has been projected by BMG Research, who suggest that the party is down five percentage points since the end of January:
JL Partners also churn-out some similar numbers, showing Reform down to 27% after a four-point slump since early February:
According to Survation, Reform have slipped out of thirties and are now down two points to 29%, in comparison to data from 28 January:
Perhaps the rosiest picture for Reform is painted by Opinium, who have them dropping just one percentage point, and staying clear of second. However, it’s worth noting these figures only show a week-on-week change – and Labour have picked up a slight bit of momentum here:
Although the decline is once again marginal from the benchmark set three weeks ago, data from Find Out Now puts Reform on 24% – almost mirroring the YouGov results. Who knows, maybe Nigel is right… maybe they’re all in on it!