Will this weekend prove to be terminal for the Conservatives? The ruling party has been rocked by a trio of resignations, and three by-elections are on the horizon. What’s more, it appears that even some of their safest seats are now in jeopardy.
Mid Bedfordshire by-election: Can anyone beat the Tories?
After Boris Johnson sensationally quit as an MP on Friday, Nadine Dorries – essentially his head cheerleader – replicated the move. The constituents of Mid Bedfordshire will now get the chance to exercise their democratic rights, four years after the last General Election.
Nigel Adams, another Johnson loyalist, also vacated his position in Selby. Though there is good reason to believe that the seats left by BoJo and Mr. Adams could also be up for grabs, there’s something rather fascinating about the Mid Bedfordshire situation.
Nadine Dorries’ seat could change hands in upcoming by-election
According to national numbers, the Conservatives no longer have the backing of a majority in this part of the country. Though Nadine Dorries picked up 60% of the vote here in 2019, current figures suggest that vote share has dwindled to just 45.9%.
Based on those metrics, the Tory lead over their nearest challengers from Labour has been cut to 11 points. However, this doesn’t make them the automatic favourites to claim the seat that Dorries will leave behind.
Seen as a more ‘credible’ alternative for disillusioned Tories, the Lib Dems – despite only polling at 12.5% – are likely to state that they have the best chance of giving the government another bloody nose. Either way, it seems ‘co-operation’ will be the best way forward.
Labour, Lib Dems told to ‘work together’ to win Tory safe seat
Research from Polling Report UK suggests that local Labour and Lib Dem politicians will have to come together if they want to claim another Conservative scalp. If they can hammer out a ‘tactical voting’ agreement, this Tory heartland could be in for a shock.
“At the last election, the Conservatives won just under 60% of the vote, with Labour the nearest challenger on 21.7%. However, electoral history from the past few years paints a different picture as the last by-elections have tended to go against the Tories.”
“A national swing would put opposition parties on a comparable vote share to the Conservatives, which could be surpassed in a by-election. Recent history shows a Tory loss in Mid Bedfordshire is possible, but it depends on how well the opposition co-operate.” | Polling Report UK