The Labour Party is on track to secure a 56-seat majority in the House of Commons, new polling has revealed.
Savanta research for LabourList shows Sir Keir Starmer’s party would secure 353 seats if there was an election tomorrow – an increase of 154 – while the Tories would lose 146 and return 211 MPs to parliament.
The model indicates that the SNP would secure 48 seats (+4), the Lib Dems 15 (+1), Plaid Cymru three (+-) and the Greens one (+-).
Savanta found a 12-point lead for Labour, with 45 per cent of people reporting that they would back Keir Starmer’s party in a general election compared to 33 per cent who said the same of the Conservatives.
Ten per cent said they would vote Lib Dem, 3 per cent Reform and 4 per cent said they would support the Green Party.
The model suggests that, with the 12-point lead in the polls, Labour would regain many of the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats – constituencies traditionally considered to be safe Labour seats but some of which returned Conservative MPs at the last election – including Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Blyth Valley, Sedgefield and Workington.
The seat-by-seat analysis also shows Labour taking seats held by prominent Conservative MPs: Welwyn Hatfield (Grant Shapps), Wycombe (Steve Baker), Wyre and Preston North (Ben Wallace) and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson).
Commenting on the findings, political research director at Savanta Chris Hopkins said that the analysis showed both the “potential and precarious nature of Labour’s polling lead at the moment”, highlighting that even a one-point shift away from the opposition could significantly reduce the majority.
“A one-point swing the other way could reduce [Labour’s] majority considerably, and any bigger swing back towards Liz Truss’ party could deprive Labour of a majority at all, even if their national vote share trumps the Conservative figure by eight to nine points,” he said.
“Labour need to hope that any Truss bounce is short-lived, and capitalise on an economic outlook that rarely rewards governing parties at the ballot box. If Labour can consistently generate double-digit poll leads over the government, Keir Starmer will be well on course for Downing Street, and therefore this conference feels a crucial moment in his leadership.
“He has an opportunity now to really differentiate Labour from the economic policies of a Truss-led government, and if he can convince voters that it is Labour, rather than the Conservatives, that have the answers to tackle the multitude of issues the country faces, the poll lead Labour have enjoyed throughout 2022 may start to feel more secure than it currently does.”