Bookies say the result of Indyref2 is too close to call as things stand.
The first minister yesterday announced a date of October 2023 for the next referendum, with or without Westminster’s blessing.
She contrasted her desire for a “lawful” second vote on Scottish independence with the prime minister “breaking the law” by reneging on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The Scottish first minister said this highlights the “difference” between herself and Boris Johnson “on the big matters of the constitution”.
At odds-on, the prospect of a referendum not happening before 2025 is 4/11, however, if there is a Scottish independence referendum before the end of 2025, Star Sports make both the yes and no camps a 5/6 chance of being victorious.
William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, said: “The First Minister’s announcement yesterday that we can expect indyref2 next year certainly appeared to come as a surprise to Westminster.
“And we go 7/2 that the vote will actually take place in 2023, however, we have made the possibility of no referendum taking place before 2025 an odds-on shot at 4/11.
“At this time, it’s impossible to split the two camps and if a vote does take place before the end of 2025, we make both sides a 5/6 chance to get their result.”
Year of next Scottish independence referendum
| 2022 | 150/1 |
| 2023 | 7/2 |
| 2024 | 11/2 |
| Not before 2025 | 4/11 |
If there is a Scottish independence referendum before end of 2025 – how would Scotland vote?
| Yes to independence | 5/6 |
| No to independence | 5/6 |
Related: Ballot papers sent out as Royal Mail workers on the brink of strike action