Blimey, what a turnaround this was. Plaid Cymru pulled off a minor shock in a highly publicised Welsh by-election, beating the might of Reform and its backers by more than 11 percentage points. However, someone had to finish last – and UKIP ended up with the wooden spoon.
ALSO READ: ‘Stop Farage’ campaign denies Reform a win in Wales
Caerphilly By-Election: Plaid Cymru emerge victorious, UKIP finish last
Lindsay Whittle was voted Senedd MP after winning 47.4% of the vote, with Reform’s Llŷr Powell in second with 36%. Meanwhile, it was an awful night for Labour, who had held the seat for over 100 years, as their vote collapsed to just 11%. The Tories, Lib Dems, and Greens received 5% combined.
Reform narrowly led polling in the days and weeks before the election, and were favourites to win in Caerphilly. What seems to have denied them the win was a remarkable turnout of 50.43%, up from 41% in the last Caerphilly vote in 2021, which has been accredited to a ‘Stop Farage’ campaign.
One thing that can’t be blamed for their loss, however, is UKIP splitting the vote. The fringe party has lurched further and further towards extreme policy positions in recent years, and their latest rebrand has raised some uncomfortable questions about their new affiliations.
UKIP earn ‘comically low’ vote share
Either way, it’s not winning the people of South Wales over any time. From their early 2010s heyday, UKIP have gone from insurgent force to insufferable farce. In Caerphilly, their candidate Roger Quilliam claimed just 0.2% of all votes cast – around one in 500.
Or, in devastatingly simple terms… 79 votes. Seventy. Nine. Votes. Don’t worry about asking for a recount… or getting your deposit back.
Caerphilly rejects Reform… for now
Whittle has vowed to ‘work like trojan’ after his election to the regional parliament, following multiple attempts to get elected over the years. The centre-left candidate will also have the task of keeping his seat next May, when the 2026 Senedd Elections take place.
Though senior figures in Reform are lauding their growth in the region, there’s no denying that Caerphilly will feel like a missed opportunity for the party. Nigel Farage said that he felt the 12,000 votes they received on Thursday ‘would be enough’ – but Plaid Cymru claimed just under 16,000.