Age has emerged as the biggest factor defining how Britain voted in the 2019 election.
Ipsos MORI estimates show the age divide between voters has increased since the last general election in 2017.
Labour took a 43 point lead among voters aged 18-24, with the Conservative share falling eight points among this group.
Conversely, the Tories had a 47 point lead among those aged 65+, with Labour’s vote share falling by 8 points too.
The biggest change was among 35-54 year olds, who saw a three point rise in the Conservatives’ vote share and 11 point fall for Labour, representing a seven point swing from Jeremy Corbyn’s party to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives.
Long-term realignment in class
The long-term realignment in class continued, with the Conservatives ahead even among social classes C2DE, which represents working class voters.
Labour lost votes among all social classes, while the Conservatives increased their vote share by three points among C2DEs.
There was a gender gap, with the Conservatives ahead of Labour by 15 points among men, and by nine points among women.
However, the swing from Labour to the Conservatives was similar among both men and women, with the Labour vote share falling by roughly the same amount among men and women.
2017 vote
The Conservatives held on to more of their 2017 vote than Labour.
The Conservatives won 88 per cent of the vote from their 2017 supporters, while Labour won 80 per cent of their 2017 vote.
The Liberal Democrats won just over six in ten (63 per cent) of their 2017 base, although attracted roughly equal levels of support from 2017 Conservative and Labour voters.
Among the relatively low numbers of those who said they did not vote in 2017 but did in 2019, Labour led by 46 per cent to 33 per cent.
However, this is primarily due to a large Labour lead among those who did not vote in 2017 because they were too young; among those who did not vote for other reasons the two main parties were roughly neck and neck.
Leave voters
The Conservatives had a clear lead among Leave voters, but Remain voters were more split.
The Conservatives had a 73 per cent to 15 per cent lead over Labour among Leave voters, representing an 8.5 point swing to Boris Johnson’s party since 2017.
Among Remain voters, just under half (48 per cent) voted Labour, 21 per cent Liberal Democrats, and 20 per cent the Conservatives.
Nine in ten (92 per cent) of 2017 Conservative Leave voters voted Conservative, but 65 per cent of 2017 Labour Leave voters voted Labour.
On the other hand, 85 per cent of 2017 Labour Remain voters voted Labour, while 73 per cent of Conservative Remain voters voted Conservative.
The Conservatives, though, lost more of their 2017 Remain vote to the Liberal Democrats (19 per cent), while 23 per cent of 2017 Labour Leave voters voted Conservative.
Graduates
Similarly, while the Conservatives won clearly among non-graduates, graduates themselves were more split.
There was a 9.5 point swing from Labour to the Conservatives among those with no qualifications (this will partly reflect their older age profile, although this may not be the only factor).
Among graduates, 39 per cent said they voted Labour, 34 per cent the Conservatives, and 17 per cent the Liberal Democrats.
BME voters
As in previous years, Labour had a strong lead among BME voters, although its vote share fell roughly the same amount among both white and BME groups.
Among BME voters, Labour led the Conservatives by 64 per cent to 20 per cent, while among white voters the Conservatives led by 48 per cent to 29 per cent.
However, Labour’s vote share fell a similar amount since 2017 among both groups, by 9 points and 10 points respectively.
The Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats got their highest share among Remain voters and graduates, and increased their vote share among nearly all groups.
Around one in five Remain voters voted for Jo Swinson’s party (up eight points from 2017), and 17 per cent of graduates (up five points).
The LibDems also saw an increase in their vote share of nine points among 35-54 year olds in social class AB.
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