Brexit is definitely a gamble. You wonder whether Theresa May is playing on slots like Casingdom sometimes! More than half of the UK electorate voted to leave the Union and in 2017, Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union was invoked. The UK has current plans to withdraw from the Union and the final withdrawal is slated to take place on March 29, 2019. After leaving the European Union, PM Teresa May has stated that the UK has no intentions of seeking permanent membership in the single market. She also stated she would repeal the European Communities Act of 1972 and will make use of current European Union laws, incorporating those into UK laws.
Pros of Brexit for the UK
For many years, Britain has been held back by the EU in many ways. The Union has always imposed rules pertaining to business and has charged Britain billions of pounds each and every year for a membership fee. The problem is that nothing has been offered in return for this money. The membership to the EU has also put a damper on the international influence that Britain has and it has not been allowed to hold an independent seat at the World Trade Centre. With Brexit, the UK will have the freedom to influence and take advantage of new opportunities.
Benefits of Brexit
Another positive side to leaving the EU would be that Britain would regain control over the number of immigrants that are entering the country to live and work. Here has been an open border policy that has not been very beneficial and the UK faces issues that will not change unless they leave the Union. Brexit would allow the UK to enjoy more sovereignty and will provide the chance to make new rules that do not have to be approved or overseen by the EU.
Free trade will be a huge benefit when the UK withdraws from the EU. As of now, Britain has been held back I terms of trade and has not had the ability to capitalize on trading with major countries like India and Japan. The job market will also improve since immigration will be selective. Many people who live in Britain have a string stance on immigration and want it to be more controlled. The many bureaucratic rules imposed by the EU have been holding Britain back, so there are many advantages to withdrawing and moving forward independently.
Multiple Brexit Disadvantages
Many economists and research results have indicated that there is a great agreement that Brexit will result in the reduction of real per-capital income in the UK and it is believed that there will be an annual loss of €404 for an average British household. There is a major concern about Brexit causing harm to the overall economy of the United Kingdom. Since more than half of the exports from the UK are sent to the EU and more than half of all imports are from the EU. This means that the trade relationship will be altered and the UK will have to establish trading relationships with other countries. This can be a very lengthy process and will result in the British economy suffering until trade agreements are put in place.
Cons of Brexit
Even the Treasury is concerned about the effects of Brexit, starting that when Britain leaves the EU, the country will be entering a major recession period. The value of the pound will weaken and it is possible that almost one million jobs could be lost within two years of withdrawing from the Union. By 2030, it is believed the economy will have shrunk by 6% and that British households would suffer from low income issues. There is also concern for a Spillover effect to come into play. The exit of Britain from the EU may lead to a loss of trust from investors in Europe. Many Europeans are liable to accuse the government of acting in an irresponsible manner and for triggering an European crisis. Not only will this have a negative effect on the economy, but will also taint the image of the United Kingdom overall.
Despite votes being on favor of Brexit, there are many negotiations yet to come and many details to be worked out. It can take many months to actually break up with the EU and hundreds of treaties will have to be revisited, which will come at a great cost. With millions to be spent on legal fees and thousands of hours of work to be done, the overall decision to withdraw from the EU is one that will cost quite a bit, delivering another blow to the economy.
The Next Steps
Now that an agreement has been made and votes have been counted, it is official that the UK will withdraw from the EU. In December of 2017, negotiations on trade will begin and the Government’s withdrawal Bill will be due in order to complete the committee stage, though further debates will be expected to take up many months in the coming year. In 2018, talks about a free trade agreement will be the focus and by March 29, two years following Article 50, the UK will no longer be a member of the EU and will not be required to be subject to any treaties, even if a withdrawal agreement has not been reached. The European Parliament elections that are slated for June of 2018 will take place without the UK. It won’t be until 2020 that Britain will stop payments to the EU budget and by 2012, Britain will no longer observe any EU regulations or rules. The entire process is long and drawn out, but it is believed that the pros outweigh the cons when it comes to withdrawing from the Union and Britain is well on it’s way to completing agreements and negotiations to allow for the end of their EU membership.