Labour and the Conservatives would be neck and neck if Brits went to the polls after October 31st – but Boris Johnson would romp home with a victory before that date.
The latest Westminster voting intentions highlight why Jeremy Corbyn could be looking to delay a General Election.
It finds that if it happened before October 31st – the official Brexit deadline date- the Tories would garner 37 per cent of the vote compared to just 30 per cent for Labour.
But if it happened after that date the two parties would be neck and neck on 28 per cent.
Westminster Voting Intention:
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) September 5, 2019
If Election BEFORE 31st Oct:
CON: 37%
LAB: 30%
BXP: 9%
If Election AFTER 31st Oct:
CON: 28%
LAB: 28%
BXP: 18%
Via @ICMResearch.
(These are the only figures available right now).
Student Vote
And there could be a good reason why.
According to leaked reports from Johnson’s campaign team one of the advantages of an October 15th election is that it could limit the number of students registering to vote.
Those on the electoral roll at their home address would be less likely to travel to vote, which could impact Labour’s chance of winning.
A large turnout of younger voters in the June 2017 election is thought to have contributed to the Conservatives losing their majority.
Labour has also promised to scrap tuition fees.
Chicken
Corbyn was branded a chicken by Johnson this week after MPs tuned down Johnson’s motion for a General Election.
But there could be a good reason plans to go to the polls have been stalled.
A vote for an election this week would give MPs no control over the date on which the election would be held.
This would mean there would be nothing to prevent the Conservatives scrapping the trailed date of the week beginning 14 October and moving it back beyond the 31 October Brexit date.
And with Parliament suspended, MPs would have no way to prevent the UK crashing out with no deal.