The Treasury has dismissed dismal economic data that suggests the UK has lost £40 billion in tax revenue this year due to Brexit.
John Springford from the Centre for European Reform (CER) has been modelling the economic performance of a UK that remained in the EU since 2018, using data from countries like the US, Germany, New Zealand, Norway and Australia, whose performance was similar to the UK’s before Brexit.
According to his findings, the difference in performance between his “doppelgänger UK economy” and the real thing is stark.
Springford’s latest update estimates that Brexit reduced Britain’s GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022.
Put another way, between April and June economic output was £33 billion lower than it would have been had the UK voted to stay in the EU, costing the government around £12 billion in lost tax revenues.
In the year to the end of June 2022, Springford estimates the tax loss at around £40 billion.
Responding to the analysis, the Treasury said: “We do not recognise this analysis. We are taking full advantage of the opportunities of Brexit.”