• Privacy policy
  • T&C’s
  • About Us
    • FAQ
  • Contact us
  • Guest Content
  • TLE
  • News
  • Politics
  • Opinion
    • Elevenses
  • Business
  • Food
  • Travel
  • Property
  • JOBS
  • All
    • All Entertainment
    • Film
    • Sport
    • Tech/Auto
    • Lifestyle
    • Lottery Results
      • Lotto
      • Thunderball
      • Set For Life
      • EuroMillions
No Result
View All Result
The London Economic
SUPPORT THE LONDON ECONOMIC
NEWSLETTER
The London Economic
No Result
View All Result
Home Politics

US election 2020: What do the final polls say?

Joe Biden goes into election day with the largest national polling lead since Bill Clinton in 1996 - and he has been consistently ahead for some time

Henry Goodwin by Henry Goodwin
2020-11-03 15:12
in Politics
FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmailWhatsapp

Despite all the turmoil and uncertainty engulfing much of the world today, one surprising area of stability has been the polling for the 2020 presidential election.

Joe Biden goes into election day with the largest national polling lead since Bill Clinton in 1996 – and he has been consistently ahead for some time, as this aggregator from FiveThirtyEight shows.

What an exciting election it's been. pic.twitter.com/YjoO0sevuA

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020

Biden also has a clear lead in the vital battleground states that will decide the election. Current polling averages have Biden +10 in Wisconsin, +8 in Michigan and +5 in Pennsylvania – considered by many to be the tipping point state.

It begs the question – would the anti-Trump brigade be so nervous about today’s results (and so distrustful of the polls) if it weren’t for the shock result we witnessed four years ago? No, probably not.

Conventional wisdom goes that the pollsters had a shocker in 2016, that they all called it as a sure thing for Hillary Clinton and overlooked the ‘silent majority’ who plumped for Trump. That’s not really true. While a great deal of the media eagerly called it for Hillary before election day, high-quality pollsters were much more circumspect.

While FiveThirtyEight, for example, stressed that Clinton was the favourite, it was also at pains to emphasises that the race was extremely competitive. Clinton had a four or so point lead going into election day – compared with Biden’s double-digit advantage – and many more voters were undecided. 

This year, Biden’s lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state. He is projected to win the popular vote by more than twice her margin. The cascade of early voting – and the polarising nature of both candidates – mean that there are far fewer undecided voters heading to the polls today. 

Just 4.8 per cent of voters say they are either undecided or plan to vote for third-party candidates today, as opposed to 12.5 per cent in 2016. If the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016, then Biden would still win – and that’s assuming that any error is in Trump’s favour.

That being said, FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a 10 per cent chance of victory – no small number. And, such is the nature of the electoral college, not that much would have to go the president’s way in order for him to rack up the necessary electoral votes to reach that magical 270 mark.

RelatedPosts

Project rehabilitation complete: Farage tipped to Reform Conservative party after jungle stint

Rishi’s worst fears realised as ERG tell him to ‘pull the bill’

Trump says he will not give evidence again at his New York fraud trial

Tory plot could see Johnson and Farage return in leadership tie-up

Regardless, there is no doubt that Joe Biden is the favourite as Americans finally head to the polls.

Here’s some good accounts to follow to keep track of the race, and understand a little more about what the polling means: 

Tweets by Redistrict
Tweets by NateSilver538
Tweets by Nate_Cohn
Previous Post

‘We stand with women in Poland’ as country delays implementing abortion ruling amid nationwide protests

Next Post

Brexit: UK misses deadline for replying to EU legal notice on controversial Bill

Subscribe to our Newsletter

View our  Privacy Policy and Terms & Conditions

More from TLE

‘Torchlit uplands’: Brits told to stock up on emergency lighting to prepare for power cuts

‘We don’t want your apology’, protesters tell Boris Johnson

Restaurant has best response to customer’s moan about being charged £8 for fish and chips

Sir Keir Starmer confronted on train for not calling for a Gaza ceasefire

Nick Ferrari has Susan Hall bang to rights over lost wallet saga

Biden says he is only running for re-election to stop Donald Trump return

Rishi Sunak now almost as unpopular as Conservative Party, poll finds

Sadiq Khan backs campaign for UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus programme

WATCH: Mick Lynch vows to DEFY anti-strike laws in blistering speech

Johnson: I shouldn’t have shaken hands with hospital patients in March 2020

JOBS

FIND MORE JOBS

About Us

TheLondonEconomic.com – Open, accessible and accountable news, sport, culture and lifestyle.

Read more

SUPPORT

We do not charge or put articles behind a paywall. If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism.

DONATE & SUPPORT

Contact

Editorial enquiries, please contact: [email protected]

Commercial enquiries, please contact: [email protected]

Address

The London Economic Newspaper Limited t/a TLE
Company number 09221879
International House,
24 Holborn Viaduct,
London EC1A 2BN,
United Kingdom

© 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. All Rights Reserved.




No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Sport
  • Entertainment
  • Lifestyle
  • Food
  • Travel
  • JOBS
  • More…
    • Elevenses
    • Opinion
    • Property
    • Tech & Auto
  • About Us
    • Privacy policy
  • Contact us

© 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. All Rights Reserved.




← ‘We stand with women in Poland’ as country delays implementing abortion ruling amid nationwide protests ← Brexit: UK misses deadline for replying to EU legal notice on controversial Bill
-->