The Conservatives are on track to lose 77 seats in the next general election, according to a regression poll byFind Out Now and Electoral Calculus.
A disastrous November saw the party caught in a sleaze scandal that ate into a healthy poll lead that has endured since the 2019 election.
Boris Johnson and the leader of the house, Jacob Rees-Mogg, ripped up the Commons rule book to save one of their colleagues, Owen Paterson at the start of the month.
The botched handling of the affair thrust how much time and money MPs raise from second jobs back into the spotlight, along with scrutiny of second home arrangements.
According to new polling involving over 10,200 respondents, both scandals have hit the Tory Party hard.
Using regression techniques, predictions show that they are on track to lose 77 seats in the next election, with Labour gaining 68.
This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of only 1 per cent which means they would lose their majority.
The prediction is down from 4 per cent from a similar poll for the Telegraph in September, and significantly down from 13 per cent in May.
Some notable Conservative MPs in danger of losing their seats include Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green), Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet), Graham Brady (Altrincham and Sale West) and Steve Baker (Wycombe).
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our latest poll with Find Out Now shows the Conservatives are not doing well with the public.
“Labour is now about equal in popularity and likely to win nearly as many seats if there were a sudden election. Given the parliamentary arithmetic, it could be more likely for Keir Starmer to be Prime Minister.
“That’s a big change since Labour’s relatively poor performance at the local elections earlier this year.”
List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands
- Altrincham and Sale West – Graham Brady
- Ashfield – Lee Anderson
- Barrow and Furness – Simon Fell
- Birmingham Northfield – Gary Sambrook
- Blackpool South – Scott Benton
- Blyth Valley – Ian Levy
- Bolsover – Mark Fletcher
- Bolton North East – Mark Logan
- Broxtowe – Darren Henry
- Burnley – Antony Higginbotham
- Bury North – James Daly
- Bury South – Christian Wakeford
- Calder Valley – Craig Whittaker
- Cheltenham – Alex Chalk
- Chingford and Woodford Green – Iain Duncan Smith
- Chipping Barnet – Theresa Villiers
- Cities of London and Westminster – Nickie Aiken
- Colne Valley – Jason McCartney
- Copeland – Trudy Harrison
- Corby – Tom Pursglove
- Crewe and Nantwich – Kieran Mullan
- Darlington – Peter Gibson
- Derby North – Amanda Solloway
- Dewsbury – Mark Eastwood
- Don Valley – Nick Fletcher
- Durham North West – Richard Holden
- Gedling – Tom Randall
- Hastings and Rye – Sally-Ann Hart
- Hendon – Matthew Offord
- Heywood and Middleton – Chris Clarkson
- High Peak – Robert Largan
- Hyndburn – Sara Britcliffe
- Keighley – Robbie Moore
- Kensington – Felicity Buchan
- Leigh – James Grundy
- Lincoln – Karl McCartney
- Loughborough – Jane Hunt
- Morecambe and Lunesdale – David Morris
- Northampton North – Michael Ellis
- Northampton South – Andrew Lewer
- Pendle – Andrew Stephenson
- Penistone and Stocksbridge – Miriam Cates
- Peterborough – Paul Bristow
- Pudsey – Stuart Andrew
- Redcar – Jacob Young
- Rother Valley – Alexander Stafford
- Rushcliffe – Ruth Edwards
- Sedgefield – Paul Howell
- Shipley – Philip Davies
- Southport – Damien Moore
- Stockton South – Matt Vickers
- Stoke-on-Trent Central – Jo Gideon
- Stroud – Siobhan Baillie
- Wakefield – Imran Ahmad-Khan
- Warrington South – Andy Carter
- Watford – Dean Russell
- West Bromwich East – Nicola Richards
- Wolverhampton South West – Stuart Anderson
- Workington – Mark Jenkinson
- Wycombe – Steve Baker
- York Outer – Julian Sturdy
- Aberconwy – Robin Millar
- Bridgend – Jamie Wallis
- Clwyd South – Simon Baynes
- Clwyd West – David Jones
- Delyn – Rob Roberts
- Preseli Pembrokeshire – Stephen Crabb
- Vale of Clwyd – James Davies
- Vale of Glamorgan – Alun Cairns
- Wrexham – Sarah Atherton
- Ynys Mon – Virginia Crosbie
- Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine – Andrew Bowie
- Banff and Buchan – David Duguid
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – John Lamont
- Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross – Jamie Stone
- Dumfries and Galloway – Alister Jack
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – David Mundell
- Edinburgh South – Ian Murray
- Edinburgh West – Christine Jardine
- Fife North East – Wendy Chamberlain
- Moray – Douglas Ross
- Orkney and Shetland – Alistair Carmichael
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