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Home Politics

Tories on track for double defeat in by-elections this week

Bookies are giving Tory candidate Helen Hurford just a 27 per cent chance of taking Tiverton & Honiton.

Jack Peat by Jack Peat
2022-06-22 08:14
in Politics
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The Conservatives are odds-on to lose both Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton by-elections on Thursday.

According to the bookies, there is now a 70 per cent chance that the Tories will lose both contests, with Wakefield given a 98 per cent chance of being a Labour gain.

However, Tiverton & Honiton is less certain; the likelihood of the Liberal Democrats winning currently stands at 72 per cent, falling from a high of 90 per cent.

Smarkets projects a Liberal Democrat majority of just over 3,000 votes to be the most likely outcome in that seat.

Commenting on the numbers, Smarkets head of political markets, Matthew Shaddick, said: “The latest prices at Smarkets indicate that a Labour win in Wakefield is close to a certainty.

“Anything else would represent one of the biggest by-election shocks in recent history and would likely pile a huge amount of pressure on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.

“The betting on which candidate will finish third has been an unexpectedly lively market – look out for independent Akef Akbar who is now fancied to finish ahead of the Lib Dems, Greens, and others.

“Tiverton and Honiton is harder to call; the Lib Dems are 72 per cent favourites but there has been some money coming in for a Tory hold over the last few days.

“Still, it’s been a very long time since the Liberal Democrats have failed to win a by-election in which they have been competitive and a majority of just over 3,000 votes is the latest market expectation.

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“Anything much higher than that may fuel further speculation about Boris Johnson’s prospects of holding onto power for much longer.”

Related: Mick Lynch wins plaudits for media performances that leave presenters completely unnerved

Tags: Conservative PartyLabour PartyWakefield by-election

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