The Conservatives are facing an “existential threat” as younger generations desert the party in their droves, new polling shows.
A Savanta poll for Peston shows the Labour Party now holds a remarkable 47-point lead over the Tories among 18 – 25 year old’s, marking a new milestone for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
The research suggests that only 14 per cent of young voters in the UK are planning to vote Conservative at the next general election, giving an increased lead for Labour of 6 points since Savanta’s last youth tracker for Peston in September 2023.
The prime minister’s personal rating among young people has also taken a major hit, with a drop from a net score of -20 last autumn, to -44 in the most recent poll. However, Labour leader Keir Starmer has also had a decline in support, dropping from +7 in September 2023 to -5 in April 2024.
Commenting on the results on social media, Robert Peston posted:
“The most overused phrase in politics is “existential threat”, but the results of this Savanta poll is surely that for the Tory Party.”
Savanta’s polling also suggests significant disenfranchisement among young people, with almost two-thirds (65 per cent) of 18 to 25-year-olds having no trust in politics, and close to six in ten (59 per cent) saying politicians don’t care about them.
More broadly, young people in the UK think the most important issues impacting them are housing (34 per cent), mental health provisions (34 per cent), the economy (28 per cent) and employment and welfare (27 per cent).
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said: “Young people not voting Conservative is hardly a new problem, but the sheer scale of their disenfranchisement towards them is a ticking time bomb for the party. All three of our Peston Youth Tracker polls have shown just one in seven young voters would back them, a trend that doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon.”
“The electorate has been increasingly volatile over recent years, so perhaps all is not lost for the Conservative Party in the long-term. But voting for someone is a habit, and the Conservatives’ previously successful strategy of waiting for younger people to become mortgage-owning older people may be about to become dramatically unstuck.”