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This thread tries to make sense of Brexit deal but will not bring much comfort

As Brexitists lie in bed at night let’s make sure they're plagued by a little voice: 'we’ll rejoin one day...'

Joe Mellor by Joe Mellor
2020-12-31 14:29
in Politics
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Boris Johnson has said the UK’s destiny “now resides firmly in our hands” as his European Union trade deal cleared Parliament and entered into law.

The EU (Future Relationship) Act received the backing of the Commons and Lords as the Government rushed approval through both Houses in a single day.

It was announced that the legislation had been granted royal assent at 12.25am on Thursday morning, signing the agreement finally reached between the UK and EU on Christmas Eve into law.

The Act paves the way for the deal to take effect at 11pm on Thursday when the current Brexit transition period – during which the UK has continued to follow EU rules – ends.

MPs backed the Bill by 521 to 73 at third reading, while peers gave it an unopposed third reading late on Wednesday night.

Labour supported the deal, despite misgivings from some pro-European MPs who said they would be abstaining or voting against.

But what is actually in the deal?

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Well Michael Dougan Professor of European Law, University of Liverpool has read it and on a Twitter thread explained what he think it means and how it will impact us.

Here goes…

1.

After my first reading of the draft EU-UK trade and cooperation agreement, here is a short thread with some initial thoughts:

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

2.

1) this is a massive and complex document, covering very diverse & highly specialist fields. No single person could ever plausibly claim properly to master/understand it. So I’ve focused on my own (“big picture”) interests. Not, eg the (in fact marginal) details of fishing quotas

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

3.

2) Let’s start with how draft treaty is being framed by UK Gov & client press. They compare it to “no deal” & thus treat it as some sort of triumph. Well: even on own terms, that is far from accurate: for many sectors, draft treaty is barely better than no deal at all

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

4.

3) But of course: such UK Gov framing of draft treaty = entirely if sadly typically misleading. Real comparison should be draft treaty versus what UK already enjoyed for 45 years as a Member State of the EU. And judged by that benchmark: Johnson’s proposed deal is truly pathetic

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

5.

4) Draft treaty gives UK nothing it didn't already enjoy, in relations with EU, as a Member State in its own right. Eg Johnson boasts about “zero tariffs and zero quotas” – even though we had that already for decades and Brexit simply risked throwing even those basic things away

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

6.

5) More important than slim pickings offered by draft treaty = what it doesn’t cover & therefore what will be definitively lost. In that regard: some media attention, e.g. about UK deliberately turning back on Erasmus & (equally bizarrely) on structured foreign policy cooperation

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

7.

6) But the losses go much, much further: eg no more free movement of goods (tariffs & quotas being only the most obvious & easiest trade barriers); no more free movement for services (indeed hardly anything at all for most sectors); almost total loss of movement rights for people

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

8.

7) So: all this draft treaty offers is a few scraps from the table of what we previously enjoyed as full members of the club. Otherwise: Brexit takes away vast numbers of our rights, freedoms, benefits and opportunities; to be replaced by new barriers, costs, closures and losses

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

9.

8) That damning analysis is reinforced by basic legal structures of draft treaty. Within the EU, rules & obligations = concrete rights for individuals & businesses that we can assert & enforce for ourselves. Our legal freedoms & protections are vested directly in us as citizens

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

10.

9) By contrast: under draft treaty, even such meagre rules & obligations as will exist = only between EU & UK as international actors. We, individuals & businesses who are actually meant to live with those rules, can claim / enforce nothing for ourselves from / under this treaty.

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

11.

10) So not only is Brexit the modern world's biggest exercise in cross-border economic & security segregation. It’s an equally serious legal disenfranchisement of the citizen – effectively stripped of myriad legal protections, right across Europe as well as within UK itself

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

12.

11) And all of that is besides long term damage to UK’s leadership in Europe/influence across rest of world; UK reputation as trustworthy international actor; UK internal cohesion thanks to shocking treatment of Scotland & Wales – none of which this draft treaty even touches upon

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

13.

12) What benefits do Brexitists offer as compensation for so much damage? “Sovereignty”. Something they had never lost in first place. & which in reality means: freedom to diverge [ie deregulate social standards] & strike trade deals with US [from position of relative weakness]

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

14.

13) In any case: even most fanatical Brexit loon can’t believe we’ll ever forgive their cruelty to EU & UK migrant citizens, indifference to stability in NI, contempt for basic values of honesty/integrity, debasement of UK democracy – again, none of which draft treaty can repair

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

15.

14) Johnson might think he "settled" UK's place in Europe “once & for all”. Starmer might be happy to play along. Those of us with principles & backbone think otherwise. As Brexitists lie in bed at night let’s make sure they're plagued by a little voice: “we’ll rejoin one day…”

— Michael Dougan (@mdouganlpool) December 30, 2020

Related: Brexit: What will change for the average Briton from January 1?

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