Reform seem to have been thwarted in the Caerphilly by-election by tactical ‘Stop Farage’ voting, as Plaid Cymru won the seat.
Lindsay Whittle was voted Senedd MP after winning 47.4% of the vote, with Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell in second with 36%.
Meanwhile, it was a disastrous night for Labour, who had held the seat for over 100 years, as their vote collapsed for just 11%.
Labour had been widely expected to lose the seat, but it was Reform who narrowly led polling in the days and weeks before the election.
What seems to have denied them the win was a remarkable turnout of 50.43%, up from 41% in the last Caerphilly vote in 2021.
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There had been an assumption that higher turnout was good news for Reform, but it seems what actually happened was people voted tactically to stop the right-wing party winning the seat.
Plaid figures told the BBC after polls closed that they had been “blown away” by the turnout of younger voters in particular.
Writing on X, the Guardian’s political editor Pippa Crerar said people simply voting to “stop Farage” seems to have been a factor in the result.
Meanwhile, Britain Elects co-founder Ben Walker said in a post on X last night that the turnout had been “extraordinary”insane”.
He added: “Young Plaid organiser telling me of all the texts and DMs from apolitical friends that they’re turning out to stop Reform.”
And More In Common’s Luke Tryl said the result shows “the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform.”
“Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly,” he added.