Reform’s odds of winning the next general election have fallen following their by-election defeat in Caerphilly.
In last Thursday’s Senedd by-election, Reform were thwarted by Plaid Cymru despite having led polling, as voters seemingly united against Farage’s party.
The result highlighted a major obstacle Reform will have to overcome at the next election, which is just how many people don’t like them.
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And just a few days later, the Caerphilly result has already had an impact on the betting markets for the next general election, where Reform have seen their odds drift.
Reform is now 5/6 (54.5%) with Freebets.com, easing from 8/11, in the Most Seats market. Meanwhile, the party’s odds of winning a majority at the next election have slid from 6/4 to 2/1, a 33.3% probability.
This shift suggests a potential ceiling to the party’s momentum, as Labour (now 9/4, 30.8%) claws back some ground in the most seats market — albeit still trailing.
The idea of Reform having hit a ceiling is something some have noticed in national polling as well. Whilst Farage’s party remain well clear in the polls, they’re not seeing their popularity increase whilst Labour’s declines.
It seems that Labour support might instead be shifting to the rejuvenated Greens, or as seen in Caerphilly, other left-wing/centrist parties.
In the “Next General Election Result” market, Hung Parliament remains favourite at 4/5 (55.6%), while Labour Majority holds at 5/2 (28.6%), and Reform Majority has softened.