Reform UK is now leading the Tory Party in the North (by 18 per cent to 17 per cent) as Richard Tice’s party starts to chip away at the so-called Red Wall.
Constituencies in the north including Lee Anderson’s seat of Ashfield and Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield fell to the Conservatives in 2019, but new polling suggests they are unlikely to keep hold of them for more than one term.
New polling by YouGov for The Times shows that Rishi Sunak’s party have dropped to under 20 per cent in the polls for the first time since Liz Truss’s disastrous premiership ended.
Just 19 per cent of voters plan on backing the PM at the election, despite Tory MPs rallying behind Sunak at last night’s 1922 Committee meeting.
Reform is now polling at 15 points nationally, but is ahead of the Tories in the North and trialling by just two points in the south.
A separate Ipsos poll, meanwhile, shows voters are now more unfavourable towards both the Conservative party and Rishi Sunak than at any other time during this parliament.
The Tories are viewed unfavourably by 58 per cent, surpassing the previous highest proportion registered by Ipsos polling in October when 56 per cent were unfavourable.
With 19 per cent viewing the Tories favourably, a net favourability rating of minus 39 places the party below all other parties considered, including Reform (minus 26).
The Prime Minister is viewed unfavourably by 57 per cent, the highest percentage he has registered in this parliament and higher than any other politician in a list including Nigel Farage (54 per cent) and Lee Anderson (48 per cent), who recently defected from the Conservatives to the Reform party.
Rishi Sunak was viewed favourably by 19 per cent of those polled between March 15 and 18, giving him a net score of minus 38.
Keiran Pedley, Ipsos director of politics, said: “As general election year progresses analysts are keeping a watchful eye for signs of the polls narrowing.
“However, if anything, the underlying indicators are moving against the Conservatives rather than towards them.
“More Britons are unfavourable towards the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak than at any point this parliament and a consistent three-quarters say it is time for a new team of political leaders in Westminster – even if they aren’t necessarily confident Labour can provide this.”
Related: Esther McVey reminded of ‘unnecessary public spending’ comments following flat revelations