The odds on Keir Starmer to step down as prime minister in 2026 have been slashed in the wake of the Peter Mandelson scandal.
Starmer’s government has been embroiled in scandal this week after the lates release of Epstein files shed light on the relationship between Mandelson, who was appointed as the US ambassador by Starmer in 2024, and the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
Documents released showed emails between the pair in which Mandelson passed confidential government information to Epstein.
Emails also showed how Mandelson carried on his friendship with Epstein after the disgraced financier served prison time for soliciting prostitution from a minor.
At Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Starmer told Parliament he was aware of the former business secretary’s ongoing friendship with Epstein when he appointed him as ambassador.
The scandal has sparked fury from Labour MPs, and has increased pressure on Starmer following months of poor polling for both his party and himself.
Now, it seems the bookies think the writing is on the wall for the PM.
On Wednesday evening, the odds of Starmer departing in 2026 had dropped to 1/2 after more than 90% of bets were placed on him to leave this year.
In the hours since, the odds have been slashed further, with most bookmakers having Starmer at around 1/3 to step down this year.
This means the bookies give Sir Keir roughly a 70% chance of being replaced as Labour leader this year.
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers said on Wednesday: “Punters have piled in on Keir Starmer to leave in 2026 over the past hour. A mammoth 93% of bets backed the Prime Minister to depart before the year is out. The Labour leader’s odds have tumbled from 4/5 to just 1/2 to be dumped out of Downing Street this year.”
Also this week, Angela Rayner emerged as the bookies’ favourite to become the next Labour leader, overtaking Wes Streeting in the markets.