New polling projections suggest the Tories could win as few as four seats at the next General Election – making the SNP the official party of opposition.
Philip Proudfoot has crunched the numbers on recent PeoplePolling research for TV channel GB News that gave Labour a 53 per cent share of the national vote compared to just 19 per cent for the Tories.
The poll is the worst yet to hit beleaguered Liz Truss, giving Keir Starmer’s Labour a remarkable 34-point lead.
It also found that just 9 per cent of voters – fewer than one in 10 – have a favourable view of the prime minister, against 65 per cent – almost two-thirds – who regard her unfavourably.
Near-wipeout
A result on these lines would deliver Labour a landslide three-figure majority in the House of Commons and threaten near-wipeout for Tories.
Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent, told GB News: “This is a new low for the Conservative Party, which has not been at this level since the party’s almost complete meltdown at the 2019 European Parliament elections.
“At 19 per cent of the national vote, the Conservative Party is now staring into the abyss.
“Only 9 per cent of the country say they like Liz Truss, who is now more unpopular than Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn ever were.
“It is difficult, if not impossible, to see how she can turn a corner and repair her public image.”
4 seats
User-defined predictions from Electoral Calculus suggest that the Tories could win as few as four seats if the polling proves to be accurate.
Although that seems like a bit of a stretch, such a collapse would not be without precedent.
In 1993, the Tories in Canada came away with just two seats, taking them from a party with consecutive majorities in government to having no status at all.
Ten years later, the membership voted to dissolve the party and merge with the Canadian Alliance to form a new party altogether.
Related: Reports of ‘devastating collapse in confidence’ in Liz Truss among her own MPs