After months of speculation about Andy Burnham’s leadership potential, and how he’d secure a route back to parliament, it looks like his chance his finally here.
On Thursday, Labour MP Josh Simons’s announced he will step down from his seat in Makerfield, with the deliberate intention of allowing Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate.
On his return to parliament after more than nine years as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham would then be able to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
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But before we get that far, the former Leigh MP has to first win the Makerfield by-election – and that isn’t as much as a dead cert as it might previously have been…
Previous Makerfield election results
Since its creation in 1983, the Greater Manchester constituency of Makerfield has been held by Labour. 11 general elections, 11 Labour wins.
The closest any other party has come to winning the seat was in 2019, when the Tories won 34.3% of the vote to Labour’s 45.1%.
Then, in 2024, Josh Simons held the seat for Labour. But it wasn’t the Tories who finished second this time – it was Reform. Their candidate won 31.8% of the vote, around 5,400 votes fewer than Simons.
Of course, public opinion has shifted dramatically since then.
The most concerning thing for Burnham will be the local election results in the area earlier this month. Reform won over half (50.4%) of the vote in the area’s eight wards, demolishing Labour (22.7%).
On current polling, Makerfield would likely be won by Reform in a by-election, and Farage has vowed to “throw absolutely everything” at the contest.
However, Burnham has one major factor going for him: he’s Andy Burnham. The Manchester Mayor is incredibly popular in the region having won the last mayoral election by a landslide and polling has shown he is one of, if not the, most popular senior politician in the UK.
This was highlighted by More In Common’s Luke Tryl.
If anyone can hold off Reform’s rise, it would be him.
What odds do the bookies give him?
Along with polling, the bookmakers usually give us a pretty good idea about politics. You only have to cast your mind back to February in the Gorton and Denton by-election to see how useful a glance at the odds can be.
Whilst plenty of polling had the by-election as too close to call, the bookies had the Greens as favourites from the off.
And there’s good news here for Burnham.
At the time of writing, Labour are odds-on to win the Makerfield by-election, with William Hill having the party at 4/6 to hold on to the seat.
It’s a close run thing at the moment though, with Reform second favourites on 6/5.
Meanwhile, Ladbrokes have even shorter odds on a Labour win, giving 4/7.
All of this is on the assumption Burnham will be the Labour candidate. Considering that he has said he wants to stand and Number 10 seem happy to let him on this occasion, there’s no reason to think Burnham wouldn’t be the Labour candidate.
So, Labour and Burnham are very much the favourites with the bookies.
If Labour’s Chief Whip starts the election process in the coming days, the Makerfield by-election could take place as early as June 18 or June 25.
Should Burnham win the seat, he’d then be set up for a tilt at the Labour leadership later in the year. He would then need the nomination of 81 Labour MPs to be formally enter a contest. Keir Starmer would automatically be on the ballot as sitting leader if he wishes to contest the challenge, as would any other candidates who can secure 81 Labour MP nominations.
It will then be up to a ballot of Labour members to decide who becomes – or stays on – as leader.
The Labour leadership chaos looks like it could rumble on for a few months yet.