Is it too early to consider total election wipout for the Tories?

The Conservative Party suffered its worst defeat in Chester since 1832 in the by-election on Thursday.

Labour secured more than 61 per cent of the votes and a 13.76 per cent swing from the Tories, who picked up just 6,335 votes, or 22 per cent in total.

In a victory speech after the result was announced, Samantha Dixon said: “This is the cost of 12 years of Conservative Government.

“The Government, which has wreaked havoc with our economy, destroyed our public services and betrayed the people who put their trust in them at the last general election.”

By-election defeats

The result is the latest by-election defeat suffered by the Conservatives.

The last two by-elections, which took place on the same day in June, were a disaster for the Tories, with Labour snatching Wakefield and the Liberal Democrats securing a historic victory in Tiverton and Honiton.

The result, which comes just over a month into Rishi Sunak’s tenure as prime minister, is unlikely to be seen as a referendum on his leadership.

But it nonetheless comes as a blow to the party, which is facing an uphill battle to remain in office at the next nationwide poll.

Indeed, current projections suggest the party could be on track for total election wipeout within the next few years, losing the lion’s share of the 356 seats they currently hold.

Constituency predictions

Constituency predictions show Dominic Raab will lose his seat in Esher and Walton to the Lib Dems, while Boris Johnson’s bid to retain Uxbridge and South Ruislip could also end in tears.

Elsewhere even Jeremy Hunt’s safe seat of South West Surrey will switch hands for the first time since it was created in 1983.

Several Tory MPs have already jumped ship facing almost certain election defeat.

Levelling-up minister Dehenna Davison joined Sir Gary Streeter in becoming the latest Tories to announce their exit plans, while Sunak’s net-zero tsar Chris Skidmore joining shortly after.

Right-wing vote

And to add insult to injury, Nigel Farage is considering a political comeback that could skim off a considerable number of voters from the right wing of the party.

In a Telegraph post, he said he accepts this would just “let Labour in”, but he doesn’t care.

“I didn’t spend 25 years battling for Brexit only to watch the Tories give it away.”

Jack Peat

Jack is a business and economics journalist and the founder of The London Economic (TLE). He has contributed articles to VICE, Huffington Post and Independent and is a published author. Jack read History at the University of Wales, Bangor and has a Masters in Journalism from the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne.