The Green Party are being strongly tipped to take Gorton & Denton in this month’s by-election.
Hannah Spencer is standing for the Greens in the vote on 26 February, and momentum appears to be building behind her campaign.
Ever since the by-election was confirmed, the bookies have had the Greens as the favourites – and this doesn’t show any sign of ending.
The bookies have slashed their odds to 2/5 for a Green victory, with 44% of bets placed this week backing Spencer to win the seat.
This gives the Greens a 71% implied probability of winning the seat and gaining their sixth MP.
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Meanwhile, at 5/2, Reform’s Matt Goodwin is given just a 29% chance of winning the by-election.
Either way, the bookies believe it’s a race between the Greens and Reform, with Labour back at 7/1 and a 13% probability of holding on to the constituency.
Some bookies have got the Greens at even lower odds though, with Ladbrokes having the Greens at 4/11 and Reform at 7/2 at the time of writing.
If those predictions prove accurate, it would mark another significant breakthrough for the Greens – and further evidence that voters in traditionally safe areas are increasingly willing to look beyond the two-party status quo.
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers stated, “The Gorton & Denton by-election betting market has been a hive of activity this week. The Green party are now just 2/5 to win the Greater Manchester constituency and were the most backed party by punters with 44% of the betting. Reform poses the biggest threat to the Green party according to the bookies at 5/2 while 35% of bets favoured Reform.”