Jump or be pushed? By-election threat, latest polls spell DISASTER for Dominic Raab

Friday has been a catastrophic day for Dominic Raab. This morning, he was he left with no option but to resign from his roles as Justice Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister. Then, just hours later, the release of new polling data compounded his misery.

After Bullygate, Dominic Raab faces an uncertain political future

The top Tory handed his resignation in earlier on Friday, after an inquiry upheld complaints about his bullying of staff. Though he largely disagreed with the findings, Raab exited the Cabinet just a day after they were handed over to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Figures released by UK Polling Data show how Mr. Raab is now on course to LOSE his seat as an MP at the next election. Although Labour hold a 15-20 point lead according to some polls, the biggest threat to this Tory stronghold comes from the Liberal Democrats.

Monica Harding is the Lib Dem candidate for Esher and Walton. She is forecast to soar past Raab when the polls open in 2024, leading the incumbent by almost nine percentage points. The outgoing minister is set to see his vote share plummet from 49%, down to 35%.

Tories confronted by bleak General Election forecasts

It follows a spate of projections that spell a nightmare scenario for even the most senior members of the Conservative Party. Both Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg were recently predicted to lose their seats as MPs if current polling numbers remain consistent.

However, there is a twin threat facing Dominic Raab – whose political future now hangs by a thread. Not only has the court of public opinion turned against him, but his political opponents have also gone into full ‘attack mode’.

Lib Dems demand Dominic Raab resigns, to trigger a by-election

Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, has insisted that Raab should resign ‘immediately’ following the bullying scandal. He wants a by-election in place as soon as possible, arguing that local constituents must be given the chance to ‘elect the MP they deserve’.

“Dominic Raab is not only unfit to serve as a minister, but is totally unfit to represent his constituents in Parliament. He must now resign and trigger a by-election. Then the people of Esher and Walton can finally elect the MP they deserve.” | Ed Davey

Tom Head

Hailing from Nottingham, Tom Head has had a journalism career that's taken him across the world. He spent five years as a political reporter in South Africa, specialising in the production digital content. The 30-year-old has two cats, a wonderful wife, and a hairline that's steadily making a retreat.