By-elections this week threaten to cause misery for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, as the Conservatives battle to save seats in three crunch local polls.
All eyes in Westminster will be on the by-elections in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty as well as Somerton and Frome on Thursday, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats both hoping to inflict blows on the Tories.
It could be a drama-filled end to a parliamentary term not short on political theatrics, with the Uxbridge and Selby polls triggered amid the fall-out of Boris Johnson’s furious reaction to the Privileges Committee investigation and the row over his resignation honours list.
The economic outlook is difficult too, with households still struggling with stubbornly high inflation and mortgage holders pitched into misery by rising interest rates.
“Normal mid-term politics”
Combined with NHS pressures and the impact of months of industrial unrest, it could be a difficult start to summer recess for Mr Sunak.
Pollster and political analyst Lord Hayward believes the UK has now “returned to normal mid-term politics”.
“What we’re looking at is a series of by-elections where people will naturally express their anger about the current government.
“Boris Johnson, in a curious way, managed to defy mid-term in some cases, although not necessarily in by-elections.”
The Tory peer added: “People will express their view about government but – and this is where it becomes different – all the seats… there is the burden of the events of the last 12 months.”
By-election odds
The bookies heavily favour Conservative opposition in all three seats.
Luke Tarr, Head of PR at Star Sports, said: “This week’s triple by-election is expected to spell further trouble for the Conservative party, and we forecast Rishi Sunak to lose all three seats when the voters take to the polling stations on Thursday.
“Somerton and Frome is predicted to be the trickiest for the Tories to hold onto and they are as big as 14/1 to come out on top on Thursday, with the Liberal Democrats the overwhelming 1/200 favourites.
“The other two votes are expected to be dominated by Labour, with Keir Starmer’s party heavily odds-on to claim Selby and Ainsty (1/10) and Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip (1/12) from an increasingly desperate Conservative outfit.”
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