Labour has maintained a double-digit lead over the Conservatives – sitting at 17 points ahead – although both major parties have lost votes to the smaller parties, Opinium’s latest poll reveals.
Labour now takes 40 per cent of the vote (-2), while the Conservatives have dropped to 23 per cent (-1). Reform has 14 per cent (+2), the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (+2), the Green Party has 7 per cent (n/c) and the SNP are on 2 per cent (-1).
Looking at who would make the best prime minister, both Kier Starmer and Rishi Sunak have seen a drop, although Starmer retains a 14-point lead over Sunak. However, the option of ‘Neither’ making the best prime minister came out on top this week.
The Campaign
This week has been the worst of the campaign so far for the Tories, with voters thinking their campaign has gone from bad to worse. Only 10 per cent of voters think the Conservatives had a good week vs two thirds (65 per cent) who think they had a bad week – this compared to 18 per cent who thought they had a good week vs 50 per cent who thought it was bad last week.
In particular, people think it’s been a bad week for Rishi Sunak, with almost three quarters of voters (72 per cent) saying he’s had a bad week.
In contrast, this is the best week of the campaign so far for Labour, with over two in five voters (43 per cent) saying they think Labour has had a good week, vs 19 per cent who think it was a bad week.
Looking at the smaller parties, the Lib Dems have also had their best week, although their campaign continues to have limited impact. Over a quarter (28 per cent) of voters think the Lib Dems have had a good week, vs 18 per cent who think it was a bad week.
Reform’s campaign continues to make more of an impact but is going less well than the weeks before. A quarter (26 per cent) of voters think Reform had a good week vs 31 per cent bad week, compared to 31 per cent good vs 24 per cent bad last week.
Manifesto launches
Following the launch of both the Tory and Labour manifestos this week, more voters support Labour’s policy platform than oppose it (46 per cent support, 34 per cent oppose). However, the public are more divided on whether the policy platform is credible and believable (44 per cent agree, 37 per cent disagree).
By comparison, the public oppose the Conservative policy platform which they think is not credible and believable.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium said: “Voters are turning away from the two major parties in a huge break with the trend seen in the 2019 general election campaign, when the smaller parties’ votes were squeezed. The biggest surprise is that both major parties are being hit, with Labour and the Conservatives down to their lowest share of the vote since Liz Truss was in office.”
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