One in six Conservative voters are likely to die before the next election compared to just 1 in 19 people who voted Labour, new analysis has revealed.
Following a bruising election for Britain’s oldest party, there could be more bad news on the horizon if they struggle to reconnect with younger voters, with more seats likely to be lost due to demographical changes.
Research by The Times data editor Tom Calver suggests more than a million Tory votes are likely to be lost by 2029 as a result of demography, while Labour will add nearly 300,000 as younger people, who are more likely to back the party, become eligible to vote.
Senior Tories are increasingly concerned about how to appeal to younger voters after a crushing defeat in which they became even more dependent on older people.
People are now more likely to vote Conservative than Labour when they turn 64, up from 42 in 2019, according to analysis by Focaldata.
Between 2019 and this year about one in ten of those who voted for Boris Johnson had died, analysis based on Office for National Statistics population estimates shows.
But that the trend is likely to accelerate over the course of this parliament.
By 2029, about 1.2 million people who voted Conservative this month will have died, approximately 17 per cent of the Tories’ vote, against only about 500,000 Labour voters, or 5.3 per cent of its backers.
Sam Bidwell, director of the Next Generation Centre at the Adam Smith Institute, said that Tory reliance on older voters was “an existential challenge” for the party. “If it continues along its current trajectory, the party is at risk of literally dying out,” he said.
“Though there is certainly a degree of cultural disillusionment with the party among younger people, the primary reason for their dissatisfaction is economic. Our anti-risk, anti-growth economic model has failed to give younger people the opportunities that their parents enjoyed, while homeownership has started to fall.”
Bidwell said that the revival of conservative parties in Canada and New Zealand showed that it was “perfectly possible for centre-right parties to reinvigorate their support among younger voters”.
He urged the Tories to “set out an ambitious economic agenda that focuses on improving career opportunities, making it easier to start a family and — most importantly — expanding homeownership”.
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