The odds on Keir Starmer being replaced as Labour leader and the country having a new prime minister have shorted following a chaotic week for the government.
It goes without saying that Starmer and Rachel Reeves have had better weeks. Following a rebellion from their own MPs that forced the government into an embarrassing climbdown on their welfare reform bill, the chancellor was seen crying during Prime Minister’s Questions, with her role coming under huge scrutiny.
On Thursday, Starmer publicly backed Reeves, but with his authority over his MPs seemingly weakened and his cabinet under pressure, the odds on him facing a leadership challenge and being replaced have shortened.
READ MORE: Reform MP brags she ‘knows what it is like to hire and fire’ employees
The betting markets are starting to lean towards the PM not making it to the end of next year. A 2026 exit is now priced at 7/2 (22.2%), with Labour figures rapidly climbing the betting markets to succeed him, according to Freebets.com.
The odds of him lasting the entire parliament are now better than evens, sitting at 13/8, whilst an exit before the end of 2025 is at 9/2, along with a 2028 departure.
The favourites to replace him? Angela Rayner sits at 6/1, whilst Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper are both 7/1.
As for Reeves, the markets she could be on borrowed time at number 11. Her climbdown on key financial policies like the PIP reform and winter fuel allowance mean it’s widely expected she will have to raise taxes significantly at her next Budget to plug a multi-billion pound funding gap at the heart of Labour’s welfare strategy.
Pat McFadden is 2/1 to replace Reeves as chancellor, whilst Darren Jones is 4/1.