Lee Anderson is expected to be relegated to third place in his Ashfield constituency at the next election.
The deputy Conservative Party chairman is trailing behind Labour by more than ten points, according to the latest UK polling Report.
It could result in a humbling defeat when the prime minister calls an election, expected to be in the second half of the year.
Elsewhere, Opinium’s first poll of 2024 reveals Labour has a 14 point lead, a slight increase (+1) since before Christmas.
Labour has 41 per cent of the vote share, while the Conservatives have 27 per cent (no change). The Liberal Democrats are on 11 per cent (also no change), SNP have 4 per cent (+1), the Greens have 6 per cent (-1) and Reform UK has 10 per cent (+1).
Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings have remained broadly stable since before Christmas, with Stamer on -9 per cent (no change) and Sunak on -30 per cent (-1).
However, as the fallout from the Post Office scandal dominates the headlines, Liberal Democrat leader (and postal affairs minister in the early 2010s) Ed Davey has suffered a significant drop in his overall rating, which has gone from 16 per cent approving and 20 per cent disapproving (-4 per cent net) to 13 per cent approving and 26 per cent disapproving (-13 per cent net).
Adam Drummond, Head of Political & Social Research at Opinium said: “At the top level, not much has changed since before Christmas. Labour still lead by double digits, Keir Starmer’s approval rating isn’t brilliant but Rishi Sunak’s is awful.
“However, the most noticed story by far was the Post Office scandal and this is behind the drop in Ed Davey’s approval rating.
“The Lib Dems will be worried that the first time their leader has cut through to voters is for his connection to a huge scandal.
“But, while Labour and the Tories may be relieved that fingers aren’t being pointed at them, they and the rest of us should be concerned if important questions about how national institutions operate devolve into yet another edition of ‘which politician you’ve never heard of is going to resign?’”
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