Election expert John Curtis has made a surprise prediction for the upcoming December general election, saying parties outside the big two are likely to return a record number of MPs.
Speaking to LBC’s Shelagh Fogarty he said there could be more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the main two parties.
December election
The UK is expected to go to the polls on 12th December after Jeremy Corbyn told Labour MPs to back Boris Johnson’s proposal for an early General Election.
Sir John is the man who predicted Brexit and has been in charge of the accurate exit polls in the recent elections in 2015 and 2017.
Explaining his rationale, he said: “The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland.
“The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well.
“We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties.
“That matters for two reasons.
“The first is that it makes it difficult for either Conservative or Labour to win an overall majority if you’re taking the fact that 100 of the seats are already spoken for.
“Secondly, it matters because this is an asymmetric election.
“It’s an election that Boris Johnson has to win. If he does not get a majority or something very close to it, he will not be able to stay in government because the Conservatives do not have any friends elsewhere.
This is not an election that Labour has to win
“The Labour Party, by contrast, at least has the possibility of doing a deal with the SNP, a deal with the Liberal Democrats, getting support of the Greens and maybe even the DUP not standing in their way.
“Bear in mind, this is not an election that Labour have to win to stop Brexit, but it is an election that they and the other opposition parties simply need to deny the Conservatives a majority.”
Related: Labour MEPs will reject Withdrawal Agreement without People’s Vote amendment
Why do people always mention the Greens with their single, solitary MP and studiously avoid mentioning Plaid Cymru who have 4 MPs ?
It is possibly the ”Scottish Effect”…in the same way that Scots mp’s are not listened to, and our First Minister is referred to as ”the leader of the SNP.”
Good point
No mention of the Brexit party?
They aren’t going to win anything!
Not sure why this is supposed to be news, there are already over 100 MP’s outside of the two main parties, what will be interesting is will the Brexit Party make any impact on seats and to who’s benefit.
Talk of the Tories having no friends among the 100 odd MPs rather ignores the fact that currently 10 DUP have supported them 7 Sinn Fein don’t vote, likewise the Speaker except on ties and there are 25 Independents who can effectively vote how they see fit
In terms of Brexit there are still Labour MP’s particularly those in leave majority seats who could support a Brexit arrangement and as said if the Brexit Party manages to obtain any significant number of seats then dependent who from, then the picture can change quite a bit. Another factor is of course how many MP’s who have tried to thwart the wishes of their constituents in leave seats will get re elected
Interesting times and it might raise another interesting question, if say the SNP vote is the one that makes the difference between leave and remain then never mind Scottish Independence, should the English press for an Independence referendum so that they can decide their own future?
It would be a somewhat ironic situation if the Scots denied the majority of English voters on Brexit then gained independence themselves and so no longer had a voice in English voting, come to that would it raise similar issues regarding Wales and Northern Ireland. You can’t blame people for wanting their own independence but equally it should not deny others their own majority decisions
There weren’t over 100 MPs outside the two main parties at the last election, which is what Prof Curtice is talking about. It is just because of the formation of the “independent Group for Change” and the casting out of all those rebel Tories that has resulted in that.
The only impact I can see the Brexit Party having – if they stand – is that they may take some votes away from the other parties, particularly the Tories, in some constituencies that might lead to a different party winning the seat. The Brexit Party are very unlikely to win any seats themselves.
As for your point about the SNP, Scottish MPs don’t currently get to vote “in English voting” following the EVEL legislation. What you are talking about is the temerity of representatives from parts of the UK who don’t agree with you voting against how you wish they would vote. That is something quite different. Sure. bring on Independence. I look forward to it. Then England/Wales can decide its own fate and Scotland can finally actually decide what we want to do ourselves without being dictated to by the crazed Brexit voters from elsewhere.
I might be inclined to give credence to what Mr Peat writes, if he had been able to spell Professor Sir John Curtice’s name correctly.
As a veteran journalist of over 50 years’ standing, I find it a grave indictment of the standards of the teaching of our craft these days, that someone like Mr Peat cannot do the basics, such as correctly spelling the name of the person about whom he is writing.
This immediately has me wondering: if he cannot even get the guy’s name correct – how much of the rest of the article should we believe?
As a veteran journalist, you should obviously believe the bits of the article in quotes. Anything else is in any case journalistic interpretation, regardless of whether it is accurate or indeed properly spelled or grammatical.