Nigel Farage would find himself nowhere near Number 10 according to a major new poll predicting Reform would finish third at a general election if one was held today.
By now, regular readers of the London Economic, or keen followers of polls, will know that Reform’s support has dropped substantially from their peak last year.
Every single poll now has Labour in the lead, with some also putting the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Reform.
However, in most of these polls the gap between these three parties is pretty slim and within what pollsters consider to be the margin of error.
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For example, YouGov’s last poll had Labour just two points ahead of both the Tories and Reform.
On the surface, this would suggest a mighty close three horse race at the next general election with the very real possibility of Reform being the biggest party.
But it turns out this really would not be the case.
A major new MRP poll from YouGov has found that Nigel Farage’s party would be nowhere near being the largest party in the Commons, finishing in third behind Labour and the Conservative Party.
According to the large-scale seat-by-seat predictions, Labour would fall short of a majority with 241 seats, but would be comfortably the biggest party in the Commons.
The Tories are forecast to win 130 seats, which would be an improvement on their 2024 performance, although, let’s face it, it would be difficult for them to do any worse.
Reform would be in third with 123 seats, with Tory deserters Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman both predicted to lose their seats.
The Lib Dems would stay at a similar level to 2024 with 71 seats, there would be huge gains for the SNP, potentially winning 31 seats more than at the last general election, whilst the Greens and Plaid Cymru would see significant gains.
The poll lays bare just how remarkable Reform’s decline has been over the last few months. When YouGov carried out the same large-scale MRP polling this time last year, it found that Reform would have been the largest party by a country mile, falling just short of a majority with 311 seats.
Here’s how Reform reacted to the results of YouGov’s polling in September 2025…
Something tells us they won’t be sharing much about this one.