On the eve of one of the most significant by-elections in recent memory, it looks like things are too close to call in Gorton and Denton according to the latest poll.
As campaigning enters its final day ahead of voters going to the polls tomorrow, a new poll has shown that things couldn’t be closer between Labour, the Greens and Reform.
The latest Gorton and Denton poll from Opinium has the Greens and Labour tied on 28%, with Reform just a point behind on 27%.
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This is all within the margin of error, so basically the parties can’t be split.
But when looking at those most likely to turn out for Thursday’s vote, the Green Party edge ahead to 30%, with Labour and Reform on 28%.
From the moment this by-election was called, the bookies have had the Greens as favourites for the seat. And following the Labour Party’s decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as their candidate, many have believed the by-election to be a contest between the Greens and Reform.
But based on this poll, and the symbolism of Keir Starmer visiting the constituency this week, it seems there could be a proper three-horse race in Gorton and Denton, potentially decided by just a handful of votes.
Last week, two major tactical voting sites declared that the best way to block a win for Reform’s Matt Goodwin in the seat was to vote for Green candidate Hannah Spencer.
The Greens look set to also be helped by the decision from the Workers Party and Your Party not to field candidates, with Your Party co-founder Jeremy Corbyn having also given his backing to Spencer.
A win for Hannah Spencer would see the Greens increase their representation in Westminster to five MPs – their highest ever total. However, it would also mark a watershed moment for the party, showing that they can compete as a genuine alternative to the current Labour government.