Dominic Raab believes he has a “50/50” chance of losing his Esher and Walton seat at the next election.
Mr Raab has held his Surrey seat since 2010, but at the last election three years ago only just managed to see off a Liberal Democrat surge by a few thousand votes.
The Justice Secretary, who backed Rishi Sunak in the Tory leadership contest and is not expected to retain a Cabinet position under Liz Truss, told the Sunday Telegraph: “I think it is a 50/50 race here.”
Mr Raab also rejected speculation that he could abandon the marginal seat for a peerage, telling the paper: “First of all, I can tell you, I don’t want to go to the Lords at any point in my career.
“I can rule that out.”
He said that he would campaign hard to keep the seat, but also said that the next administration would need to “steer the country through the inflation crisis”.
“You’ve got to have both of those things,” he said.
“A strong national headwind in your favour, and a strong local campaign. I can only personally guarantee one of those two. I’d like to contribute to both.”
He also said that he is “not expecting” to be offered a job in a Truss cabinet
“I’m not expecting, if Liz is prime minister, to be offered anything,” he said. “Not least given the briefing.”
But he also suggested he would not turn down a role, if offered: “Why would I? I’m a grown up.
“Liz and I’ve written two books together. I count her as a friend.”