Where, exactly, has it all gone wrong for Reform? For the best part of the last 18 months or so, Nigel Farage and his merry gang of mostly exiled Tories have been at the apex of the Great British Opinion Poll. However, after experiencing ‘Peak Reform’ in 2025, is 2026 the year of ‘Reform Fatigue’?
Reform polling numbers take a nosedive – what does it mean?
Nigel Farage has made a career out of his ability to survive setbacks and don a suit of teflon armour. It took him seven attempts to become an MP. His UKIP project, despite delivering on its core mandate, ended in farce. No-one is particularly pleased with Brexit, and yet, he remains on the political frontlines.
Even if you run the numbers now, Reform remain the most likely party to form the next government by 2029. But they’ve gone from being dead certs to mere narrow favourites over the last few months. Some would call it a collapse. Others might weigh it up as a bottlejob.
Last Autumn, the bubble began to burst for the right-leaning group. After recording polling highs of around 35% with both IPSOS and BMG, Reform couldn’t be touched by either the floundering Tories or a languishing Labour. At one point, the Green Party emerged as their most serious challengers.
Why has Reform lost a large chunk of public support this year?
Step forward Nathan Gill. The former disciple of Nigel Farage was jailed for receiving up to £40,000 in bribes from pro-Russian forces to push their preferred narratives. His proximity to the 61-year-old, and his role as the party’s leader in Wales, started to leave a sour taste in some mouths.
As Reform’s polling average dropped south of 30%, they also lost the Senedd by-election which they were once nailed-on to win. Plaid Cymru swept to a dramatic victory in Caerphilly, leaving Reform shellshocked. Things got worse for them heading into the new year.
Allegations of racism and anti-semitism were levelled against Nigel Farage by former classmates, with several coming forward to The Guardian to discuss their experiences. This alone may not have had such an impact, but come January, Reform realised they were having another optics issue.
A flood of new members from the Conservative Party undermined the group’s claim that they were challenging the status quo as an anti-establishment party. The likes of Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick, Andrew Rosindell, and Danny Kruger all chose the lighter shade of blue.
Local Election victories marred by ‘undeclared donation’ to Nigel Farage
Reform’s polling lead continued to dwindle, but they put up a good show in the 2026 Local Elections, making serious gains across the country and showing their electability. However, and you may see a common theme here… more negative headlines plagued Nigel Farage.
The £5 million donation from a crypto billionaire in Thailand, undeclared to Parliament, became public knowledge in the same week Reform performed well in those local elections. It has proved to be something of a turn-off for the voting public, as Reform’s polling numbers started to hover around the 25% mark.
And now, we’re at this point. Andy Burnham has swanned into Number 10, planning a plethora of new policies and vowing to do politics differently. A relatively popular figure has replaced a universally unpopular one as leader of the Labour Party. Indeed, the timing couldn’t be worse for Reform.
Have we reached Reform Fatigue? These polls suggest so…
A series of polls released over the weekend show how voters have gradually pulled away from Nigel Farage’s outfit. The greatest shock to the system comes from the Survation poll, which shows an eight-point swing in the last four weeks, drawing Labour level with Reform on 24%.
Losing the outright lead is one thing, but data from Opinium only compounds the crisis. Though Reform poll one percentage point ahead of Labour, the 23% of public support is the lowest number recorded for the party by the major pollsters since 2024. The Tories are also just three points off the lead.
And, their attempts to woo the voters of the North West for a third time this year also appear to be falling flat. They failed in Gorton and Denton. They came up short in Makerfield. And now, according to YouGov, they are set to finish a distant second in the Manchester Mayoral race.
Burnham, Badenoch ‘closing gap’ on Nigel Farage
Taking all this into account, it’s fair to say that right now, Reform are in a slump. Peaking at 35% last year, and dropping to 23% at this latest benchmark shows that around one in three people who wanted to vote for the party within the last 12 months have changed their mind.
And, as explained above, it isn’t a single incident that has done this. Over time, the once-unassailable poll lead has ebbed away. A relentless carousel of scandal and suspicion has engulfed the Farage-led vehicle. The wheels haven’t come off, but rather, they’ve suffered a series of punctures.
It all leads to one conclusion. Reform Mania made way for Peak Reform, but as it stands, that’s also consigned to the history books. Instead, we are now looking at a very real case of ‘Reform Fatigue’. How they pull out of this nosedive remains to be seen.
Reform are losing support just as Labour – and even the Conservatives – are regaining it. Nigel Farage has built this whole project on the notion that British voters are tired of the two ‘bigger’ parties. But as Survation’s numbers show, people seem to be getting more fed-up with him…
Image: Survation