It’s Friday, the sun is shining, and Labour’s chances of winning the next election are sinking faster than the first cold pint of the weekend.
The latest Ipsos poll shows Reform UK on 34 per cent – a record lead of nine points over Labour, which has slumped to 25 per cent, its lowest since October 2019. Public satisfaction with the party’s performance is scraping rock bottom, and the sense of drift is starting to feel terminal.
Part of the problem? The economy. Growth is anaemic, the fiscal outlook is grim, and the Chancellor is already being warned she may have to raise taxes just to stay within her own spending rules. That’s a move that would test the patience of voters already squeezed to breaking point. As Sky News put it, she’s staring down an “impossible trilemma”: fund public services, cut taxes, and keep debt falling – pick two, if you’re lucky.
And lurking in the background like a bad hangover is Brexit. Independent estimates now suggest that leaving the EU has cost the UK around £40 billion in lost public revenues – money that could have funded the NHS, cut taxes, or, frankly, kept the lights on in struggling town halls. It’s the slow bleed that no one in Westminster really wants to talk about, especially not the Labour leadership.
But maybe they should.
Back in 2015, David Cameron threw the dice with a referendum pledge and, love or loathe the outcome, it helped secure him a majority. Starmer could do something similar now – except the public mood has shifted. Only 29 per cent of Britons would back Brexit if the vote were held again, according to the latest polling. The tables have turned.
A second referendum on EU membership would be audacious, risky, and guaranteed to dominate the campaign. It would also give Labour something it desperately lacks: a defining, future-shaping offer. For wavering Remain voters, younger generations, and businesses battered by red tape and export losses, it could be the rallying cry they’ve been waiting for.
Yes, it would ignite a political firestorm. Yes, Reform and the Conservatives would howl betrayal. But right now, Labour is in danger of going into an election armed with nothing but managerial competence and a vague sense of “not being the other lot.” That’s not enough when the polls are this bad.
If Starmer wants to change the conversation – to turn the contest on its head – the answer might be staring him in the face. Ask the country the question again.