Temperatures of 45C are possible in the United Kingdom in the current climate, the Met Office has warned.
This week, the country is experiencing a heatwave with the mercury rising above 30C in large parts of the south of England. As a result, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued heat health warnings for the entire country, in effect until Monday morning.
But the Met Office has warned that in the current climate, it is not out of the question that the UK could experience temperatures in the mid-forties at some point in the coming years.
The forecaster said there was a 50/50 chance of temperatures surpassing the 40C mark in the next 12 years, odds that have almost trebled since 2000.
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The Met Office also warned that temperatures as high as 45C “may be possible” in today’s climate, while heatwaves could last for over a month.
In a post on X about the findings, Green Party co-leader Adrian Ramsay said this was further proof of the climate catastrophe facing both the UK and the world.
He wrote: “We are not ready for what’s coming, or taking fast enough action to prevent even worse. Government’s 1st duty is to protect citizens.”
In 2022, temperatures hit 40C in the UK for the first time on record during a summer that saw extreme heat and drought.
Around the four-day heatwave period, more than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded. Over the entire summer, there were more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England.
The country also experience disruption to transport and power systems because of the heat, whilst areas such as London, Leicestershire and South Yorkshire declared major incidents as a result of fires.
The Met Office’s analysis, published the Weather Journal, used global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions. They found that the risk of 40C+ temperatures in the UK has been rapidly rising, and was now more than 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
Dr Gillian Kay, a senior scientist at the Met Office and lead author of the study, said: “The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. We estimate a 50/50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today’s climate.”
Dr Nick Dunstone, a Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said: “The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28C, which is a key heatwave threshold in south-east England.
“Our study finds that in today’s climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.”