• Privacy policy
  • T&C’s
  • About Us
    • FAQ
    • Meet the Team
  • Contact us
  • Guest Content
TLE ONLINE SHOP!
  • TLE
  • News
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Sport
  • Opinion
  • Elevenses
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • Film
    • Lifestyle
      • Horoscopes
    • Lottery Results
      • Lotto
      • Thunderball
      • Set For Life
      • EuroMillions
  • Food
    • All Food
    • Recipes
  • Property
  • Travel
  • Tech/Auto
  • JOBS
No Result
View All Result
The London Economic
SUPPORT THE LONDON ECONOMIC
NEWSLETTER
  • TLE
  • News
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Sport
  • Opinion
  • Elevenses
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • Film
    • Lifestyle
      • Horoscopes
    • Lottery Results
      • Lotto
      • Thunderball
      • Set For Life
      • EuroMillions
  • Food
    • All Food
    • Recipes
  • Property
  • Travel
  • Tech/Auto
  • JOBS
No Result
View All Result
The London Economic
No Result
View All Result
Home News Media

Brexit support likely to be overstated in polls

By Joe Mellor, Deputy Editor Polls conducted via telephone calls that currently indicate a double-digit lead for the remain campaign are likely to accurately reflect the British Public’s voting intentions, a report claims. Analysis by one of the only major polling companies who correctly predicted the UK general election results says heavy reliance on internet […]

Joe Mellor by Joe Mellor
2016-03-30 13:14
in Media, News, Politics
FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmailWhatsapp

By Joe Mellor, Deputy Editor

Polls conducted via telephone calls that currently indicate a double-digit lead for the remain campaign are likely to accurately reflect the British Public’s voting intentions, a report claims.

Analysis by one of the only major polling companies who correctly predicted the UK general election results says heavy reliance on internet polling overstates the support for the Brexit campaign.

Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics, working alongside James Kanagasooriam of polling company Populus and they looked into the stark differences between phone and online surveys.

Phone poll results show a huge lead for the remain camp of about 15-20 percentage points while online polls indicate a very close contest, pretty much level.

Matt and James believe that phone polls more closely align with the demographic make-up and attitudes of the electorate. Online surveys include an extra “don’t know” option, which you don’t have on voting day.

Singh and Kanagasooriam claim that online polls underrepresent harder to reach groups. These types of people are more likely to have socially liberal opinions and possibly to want to remain in the EU. Conversely, online surveys overrepresent those who wear their political opinions on their sleeve; in this case, people who are in favour of leaving in the EU.

They say: “As things now stand our assessment is that the true state of public opinion lies between the online and phone numbers, but closer to phone, approximately two-thirds of the way towards the leads phone polls are on average giving remain.”

Other recent polling appeared to support Singh and Kanagasooriam’s thesis. A recent Ipsos Mori phone poll showed remain’s lead halved from 49% to 41%. However, after the results were adjusted based on those more likely to vote, remain’s lead shrunk to just two points (48% to 46%).

RelatedPosts

Liz Truss to vote AGAINST the Windsor Framework

UK inflation shoots up unexpectedly driven by 18.3% hike in food prices

Boris Johnson set to vote against Rishi Sunak’s Windsor Framework

Gary Lineker posts thinly veiled tweet ahead of Johnson’s Partygate probe

David Cameron has warned that low turnout could see Britain sleepwalk out of Europe. Singh and Kanagasooriam agree that turnout may be crucial, they said: “Most of the polls we’ve looked at have not been weighted by likelihood to vote in a referendum, so turnout modelling is unlikely to be a factor in the discrepancy between the results of phone and online.

“That does not mean that turnout won’t be absolutely crucial to the ultimate result. The notion that leave voters are more determined to vote in the referendum, based on what leavers have been telling pollsters, has been little questioned.

“But this conclusion is heavily dependent on sampling people representatively in terms of relative political interest. Turnout self-reporting is known to be misleading this far out. If instead we consider high and low-turnout demographics, older people are more likely to vote to leave, but more affluent people are more likely to vote to remain than less affluent people.”

Content Protection by DMCA.com

Since you are here

Since you are here, we wanted to ask for your help.

Journalism in Britain is under threat. The government is becoming increasingly authoritarian and our media is run by a handful of billionaires, most of whom reside overseas and all of them have strong political allegiances and financial motivations.

Our mission is to hold the powerful to account. It is vital that free media is allowed to exist to expose hypocrisy, corruption, wrongdoing and abuse of power. But we can't do it without you.

If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point.

To donate or subscribe to The London Economic, click here.

The TLE shop is also now open, with all profits going to supporting our work.

The shop can be found here.

You can also SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER .

Subscribe to our Newsletter

View our  Privacy Policy and Terms & Conditions

Trending on TLE

  • All
  • trending

Elevenses: Exposing the Tories’ Deepfake Illegal Immigration Bill

Elevenses: Rishi’s Finest Hour

Elevenses: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives

More from TLE

Woman who ridiculed the holocaust on YouTube is a series of ‘grossly offensive’ songs has been convicted.

Britain will be held captive to get its freedom as May moves to deliver Brexit by stealth

Police urge people not to use unlicensed currency exchanges after £8.5m London criminal gang link

Wine of the Week: Ridgeview Bloomsbury English Sparkling Wine

It’s official: The Conservatives lose 1,000 councillors in local elections

Film Review: Under the Tree

James O’Brien left seething over Govt telling people to go back to the office

Budget: Blackford tells Sunak it’s not possible to ‘cut your way to recovery’

Former Labour Prime Minister’s Isles of Scilly holiday home put up for sale

Labour leader Corbyn would “do business with Putin”

JOBS

FIND MORE JOBS

About Us

TheLondonEconomic.com – Open, accessible and accountable news, sport, culture and lifestyle.

Read more

Contact

Editorial enquiries, please contact: [email protected]

Commercial enquiries, please contact: [email protected]

Address

The London Economic Newspaper Limited t/a TLE
Company number 09221879
International House,
24 Holborn Viaduct,
London EC1A 2BN,
United Kingdom

SUPPORT

We do not charge or put articles behind a paywall. If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism.

DONATE & SUPPORT

© 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. All Rights Reserved.




No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Sport
  • Entertainment
  • Lifestyle
  • Food
  • Travel
  • JOBS
  • More…
    • Elevenses
    • Opinion
    • Property
    • Tech & Auto
  • About Us
    • Meet the Team
    • Privacy policy
  • Contact us

© 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. All Rights Reserved.