Bookmakers have slashed their odds on Keir Starmer to step down as prime minister before the end of 2026 as the Peter Mandelson vetting controversy rumbles on.
Over the last few days, yet another controversy relating to Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador has engulfed Starmer’s government.
This time, it is over the vetting process Lord Mandelson went through and claims that he had failed said vetting process.
This has sparked accusations from opposition parties that Starmer misled MPs when he said in September that “full due process” had been followed in Mandelson’s appointment.
On Monday, the prime minister told the House he had not been made aware by officials about Mandelson’s vetting and had no knowledge of the situation.
Today, Sir Olly Robbins, the former top official at the Foreign Office who was sacked by Starmer after the story broke, appeared before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.
He told the committee Number 10 had a “dismissive approach” to Lord Mandelson’s vetting and claimed there had been an “atmosphere of pressure” and a “very strong expectation” from No10 that Mandelson be appointed as quickly as possible.
All of this has ramped up the pressure on Starmer, with questions ranging from how much he knew about Mandelson’s vetting to simply ones about his political judgement in appointing Mandelson to Britain’s most prestigious diplomatic role.
Combined with continued poor polling and major worries about Labour’s performance in May’s elections, the bookies think the writing is on the wall for Starmer.
The latest data at FreeBets.com shows the odds of Starmer leaving in 2026 stand at 1/3, the shortest price recorded for a sitting PM with a substantial majority since Boris Johnson’s final days in July 2022.
This gives an implied probability of around 87% that Starmer departs as PM this year.
In terms of who could succeed Starmer as PM, Angela Rayner is the clear favourite at 5/2, ahead of Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband on 6/1.
Because a general election would still be a very unlikely outcome should Starmer step down, Reform’s Nigel Farage is even further back on 8/1.