A sign of the times, perhaps? Two of the UK’s most renowned tactical voting sites have declared that the best way to block a victory for Reform in the Gorton and Denton by-election next week, is for left-leaning voters to give their backing to the Green Party.
ALSO READ: Reform’s London Mayor candidate ‘walks off’ Piers Morgan show after fiery debate
Tactical voting: Green Party ‘best-placed’ to beat Reform
The news comes after a significant round of opinion polling showed the Greens holding a narrow advantage among constituents. From those who were surveyed by Omnisis, 33% said they would be backing Hannah Spencer – a local representative with a background in plumbing.
This edges out Reform on 29%, and Labour trailing in third on 26%. Both the Conservatives and Lib Dems are polling at under 5% in the region. Given that these numbers show a hefty alignment of left-leaning voters, the threat of a split vote could leave Reform with an open goal.
Gorton and Denton: Why the Green Party find themselves as the left’s party of choice
Researchers at tactical.vote have used the Omnisis data to support their calls for the public to go Green. They also note that Spencer and her colleagues can benefit most from both the Workers Party and Your Party not fielding candidateS – as their supporters are less likely to back Labour.
“Under our rules this would normally mean a Labour recommendation – however, given the circumstances, we argue that several adjustments must be made, based on data from similar past byelections. Firstly, it is generally difficult for an incumbent government to win by-elections.”
“Labour-leaning voters are more likely to vote Green tactically than Green-leaning voters are to vote Labour tactically. We also use polling as a cross-check. Since 2024, Labour’s polling position has declined by 15 percentage points – The Greens have risen by seven percentage points.” | tactical.vote
When will the Gorton and Denton by-election be held?
The Movement Forward, another tactical voting site who initially set-up to target the Tories, are also nominating the Green Party as their preferred candidate to prevent another Reform MP joining Parliament – establishing a firm favourite in for those still on the fence.
A win for Hannah Spencer would see the Greens increase their representation in Westminster to five MPs – their highest ever total. However, it would also mark a watershed moment for the party, showing that they can compete as a genuine alternative to the current Labour government.
- The Gorton and Denton by-election will be held on Thursday 26 February, with a result likely to be confirmed in the early hours of Friday 27 February.