Conservative hopes that the polls will narrow in the run-up to the general election appear to be misguided after the latest indicators show they are doing the exact opposite.
Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has grown to 20 points following the first full week of campaigning, Opinium’s latest poll reveals.
Labour now takes 45 per cent of the vote share (+4), while the Conservatives have dropped to 25 per cent (-2). This is the largest Labour lead since Liz Truss was Prime Minister.
The Liberal Democrats have 8 per cent (-2), SNP are on 3 per cent (+1), the Green Party has 6 per cent (-1) and Reform has 11 per cent (+1).
Keir Starmer has also widened his lead over Rishi Sunak to 16 points as to who would make the best Prime Minister – with 36 per cent picking he Labour leader compared to 20 per cent who would choose the current PM. However, 31 per cent would still pick neither.
While all three of the main party leaders have seen a slight drop in approval rating this week, Keir Starmer still fares best:
| Approve | Disapprove | Net | Change in net since 23-24 May | ||||||
| Keir Starmer | 34% | 37% | -2% | -1 | |||||
| Rishi Sunak | 23% | 56% | -33% | -2 | |||||
| Ed Davey | 15% | 22% | -8% | -3 |
Numbers might appear out due to rounding.
Conservative campaign not cutting through with the public
Overall, more than three in five (61 per cent) do not think the Conservative campaign has been successful, with just 20 per cent thinking it has been successful. In comparison, 43 per cent think Labour’s campaign has been a success, but a third (32 per cent) do not.
The majority (52 per cent) think the Conservative campaign has had a bad week, with only 17 per cent thinking they’ve had a good week – down from 21 per cent last week.
The public is less sure about Labour’s performance this week, with 34 per cent thinking the party has had a good week, 30 per cent a bad week, and 36 per cent saying they don’t know. This is in contrast to last week when 40 per cent thought they had a good week, only 22 per cent a bad week and 29 per cent didn’t know.
Opinium’s poll also finds that this week’s campaigning has made the public feel slightly more positive about Starmer, and slightly more negative about Sunak. Almost three in ten say their opinion of Sunak has become more negative since the start of the campaign vs 18 per cent more positive. Starmer’s stats are a mirror image, with 28 per cent saying their opinion of him has become more positive and 18 per cent saying more negative.
Lowering the voting age and introducing National Service least popular proposals
Looking at the ideas proposed by both parties in the last week, almost half (45 per cent) think the Conservatives’ headline-grabbing National Service policy is a bad idea. However, a greater proportion of voters (49 per cent) think Labour’s proposal to lower the voting age is a bad idea. The Conservatives’ ‘triple lock plus’ proposal is the most popular policy, with a majority (52 per cent) thinking this is a good idea.
| Policy proposals by the major parties | Good idea | Bad idea | Not sure | ||||
| The Conservative proposal to raise the tax-free allowance for pensions specifically, ensuring that it rises inline with state pensions which is governed by the “triple lock” | 52% | 20% | 28% | ||||
| The Labour proposal to rule out any rises in income tax or National Insurance over the next 5 years | 51% | 20% | 28% | ||||
| The Conservative proposal to close 1 in 8 university courses that don’t lead to graduate employment or higher pay, with the funding for used to create 100,000 more apprenticeships instead | 50% | 25% | 25% | ||||
| The Conservative proposal to introduce mandatory ‘National Service’ for 18 year olds, with the choice of a full-time military placement for 12 months or a scheme to volunteer for one weekend a month for a year | 35% | 45% | 20% | ||||
| The Labour proposal to lower the voting age to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to vote in general elections | 31% | 49% | 20% |
Overall, most adults would not want their child to sign up for the Conservative’s National Service proposal when they turned 18 (47 per cent would not want them to, 36 per cent would want them to). However, half (51 per cent) of those aged 65 and over would have wanted their child to do this scheme when turning 18.
Public see Starmer as a future PM but are less certain Labour is ready for government
While more than half (53 per cent) can imagine Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, this drops to 46 per cent who think that the Labour Party is ready to form the next government. Two in five (39 per cent) do not think Labour is ready to rule.
Similarly, 43 per cent think Labour’s policies are credible and believable, while 39 per cent do not. However, this is substantially higher than the 29 per cent who think the Conservative’s policies are credible and believable – with 55 per cent thinking they are not.
James Crouch, head of public affairs and policy at Opinium said: “If the Conservative campaign strategy is to break things so people sit up and take notice then they’ve achieved it: a huge policy announcement that got people talking and cut through almost everything else. Unfortunately for Rishi Sunak the National Service proposal has galvanised Labour support before winning back any Undecided Conservatives.”
Opinium was the most accurate research agency in both the 2019 UK General Election and the EU Referendum.
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