QuotedData’s economic round up – October 2017 – is a collation of recent insights on markets and economies taken from the comments made by chairmen and investment managers of investment companies – have a read and make your own minds up. Please remember that nothing in this note is designed to encourage you to buy or sell any of the companies mentioned. Kindly sponsored by Martin Currie.
Sterling bounced against the US dollar during September and was stronger against most currencies. The oil price was quite strong as the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its projections for oil demand. Gold eased a little. The Bank of England dropped more hints about raising rates and this hit gilt yields. In sterling terms, most markets fell. Notably, emerging markets gave up some of their summer gains.
Diverging views on inflation, worries about consumer debt and the unwinding of quantitative easing.
The managers of Ruffer Investment Company say that inflationary risks are rising. Geoffrey Howard-Spinks, chairman of New Star Investment Trust, thinks that inflation rises over the coming months are likely to be modest. The managers of that fund think deflationary forces may hold inflationary pressures at bay. Peter Burrows, chairman of UIL, highlights low wage inflation as a positive for investment markets. Tom Walker, manager of Martin Currie Global Portfolio, is concerned about increasing consumer debt and thinks that the Federal Reserve may be cautious about raising rates. The managers of Mid Wynd say they are not gloomy as they think equities are not over valued and debt levels are manageable. The managers of Highbridge Multi Strategy warn that the unwinding of QE may not result in an orderly transition.