The Labour Party is forecast to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election ahead of the Greens, but both sides are still talking up their chances.
A new projection from election analysis site Stats for Lefties has used local election results and national polls to forecast the outcome of the vote in North London next Thursday.
It is predicted that Labour will achieve 39% of the vote ahead of the Greens in second on 32%. The Tories are predicted to gain 10%, narrowly beating Reform on 9%.
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The results would mean a three point increase in the Green Party vote compared to 2024, but this would not be enough to claim the seat off Labour.
The bookies also have Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali as the clear favourite to win the seat, despite Green leader Zack Polanski standing for his party.
And it seems Labour are very confident they’ll hold onto the constituency, as they have done ever since it was created in 1983.
At the Labour Party conference this week, deputy leader Lucy Powell said she was “confident” her party would win in Holborn and St Pancras, adding that it was “unlikely” Polanski would beat them.
Some reckon that the ‘Polanski bounce’ the Greens experienced this time last year is over, with party figures and sources said to be concerned that defeat in Holborn and St Pancras could damage his leadership.
Polanski has dismissed these claims, and the Green Party sources are arguing that Labour’s confidence in winning the by-election is “totally misplaced.”
A source told HuffPost UK that the Greens will be mounting a huge campaign in the days leading up to the vote, adding: “We’ve been moving in on Labour in the past week, with significant numbers of undecided voters who’d previously voted Labour in 2024 now moving to the Green column.”
Voters will go to the polls in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October.