The Conservative Party is staring down the barrel of a whopping local elections hammering, with analysts predicting they will shed 500 seats.
Rishi Sunak looked to rally the troops as he urged voters to “send Starmer a message” in the May 2nd vote.
Speaking at a rally in Heanor, Derbyshire, the prime minister said the Labour leader was “arrogantly taking the British people for granted” and “assuming that he can just stroll into Number 10 without saying what he would do”.
Talking up the achievements of Conservative mayors such as Ben Houchen and Andy Street ahead of the election, Sunak attacked the financial record of Labour-run councils, saying: “They tax you more and deliver less.”
But the message doesn’t seem to be cutting through with voters.
Analysts Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings have warned the Conservatives could lose half of the seats they are defending on May 2nd if they repeat their poor performance in last year’s local polls.
Sunak’s party lost more than 1,000 councillors and control of 40 councils in 2023, prompting Starmer to declare Labour was on the path to power.
More than 2,600 seats in 107 local authorities will be up for election in May, alongside 11 mayoral races.
Under new boundaries, Labour and the Conservatives defend a little fewer than 1,000 seats each, the Liberal Democrats about 400 and the Greens just over 100.
Speaking ahead of the contest, Rallings and Thrasher told The Mirror: “Such a high water mark means Conservative losses are inevitable.
“It will be interesting though to track whether voters swap directly to Labour or seek refuge in either smaller parties or the plethora of Independent and community-focused candidates which have become an increasing feature of the locals.
“If the Conservatives repeat their poor performance of 2023, when the national equivalent vote put them below 30 per cent, they stand to lose up to 500 seats – half their councillors facing election. Labour may make about 300 gains, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both likely to advance.”
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