Reform’s Matt Goodwin has predicted that Labour will win the next general election after the latest disastrous polling for his party.
For months now, Reform have been falling in the polls whilst Labour rise under Andy Burnham’s leadership, a trend that continued with YouGov’s latest polling Tuesday.
Their poll saw Labour rise three points to 27%, their highest level of support since January 2025. At the same time, Reform dropped by three points, leaving them on 22%, five adrift of Labour.
Of course, plenty Reform voices will cry that the polls are irrelevant, inaccurate or run by left-leaning, woke pollsters who want to overemphasise Labour’s support.
But it seems that some Reform figures are starting to wake up to reality.
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Matt Goodwin has risen to prominence as one of Reform’s most vocal supporters in the media. The hard-right ‘academic’ and failed Reform candidate is usually bullish about the party’s chances, such as when he laughably predicted that Reform would beat Andy Burnham in Makerfield.
However, it seems like his confidence in Reform and their election chances is on the wane.
Following the YouGov polling, he wrote on X: “Latest polls confirms what I’ve been writing for months. Labour is pulling back 2024 Labour voters + Greens. It is pulling ahead & will win the next election unless the Right also consolidates.
“Left-wing voters are far more willing than right-wing voters to vote tactically.”
Goodwin’s comments were a clear allusion to the threat Reform face not just from Labour or the Tories, but also on the far-right from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain.
Just last week, Restore split the right-wing vote enough to thwart Reform in two local by-elections, exposing how fractured the right currently is.
At the same time, Burnham appears to be rallying the left as Labour win support from the Greens and Lib Dems.