Nigel Farage may have been full of praise for Rob Kenyon following his debut on BBC Question Time last week, but it seems very few others agree with his assessment of the Reform candidate for the Makerfield by-election – and bookmakers have responded accordingly.
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Reform vs Labour: Current betting odds on Makerfield by-election
Kenyon appeared on the panel last Thursday. It was a tough evening for the right-leaning councillor, who faced up to allegations of sexism and previous vulgar comments online. The studio audience also laughed when he suggested increasing the number of police officers ‘was not his problem’.
The candidates from other political parties contesting this latest by-election gave a more polished account of themselves. Andy Burnham turned out for Labour, and clashed several times with Mr. Kenyon. As a result, the sands appear to have shifted in favour of the Manchester Mayor.
At the start of last week, Reform were placed at shortened odds of 5/2, roughly translating to a 28% chance of winning. However, the likes of Betfred, William Hill, and MGM Bet all saw the numbers drift to 4/1 over the last 72 hours – implying a 20% chance of a Reform victory.
Burnham benefits from Question Time debate
This is a significant change, and one that indicates Andy Burnham is now in the box seat heading into the crucial vote on Thursday 18 June. New polling data out of Makerfield also shows a surge in support for the former cabinet minister, opening up a 10-percentage point lead over Reform.
It’s understood that Reform are reticent to blame their inexperienced candidate for their fading fortunes, with many inside the party lamenting the rise of Restore Britain instead. Rupert Lowe’s further-right organisation is polling at around 8% in the constituency – costing Reform a vital portion of votes.
Kenyon’s campaign has been dogged by scandal, and last week, Carol Vorderman sent an open letter to the women of Makerfield, imploring them not to vote for the person who made crass remarks about her on social media before he was elected into local government.
With 11 days to go until the polls open, Reform face an uphill battle to thwart Burnham’s attempts to return as an MP.