Cast your minds back 12 months. The turquoise wave was seemingly unstoppable. Reform had built what looked to be an unassailable lead at the top of the opinion polls, comfortably commanding 30-35% of public support. It was all going so well… until it wasn’t.
A bad year, a bad month, and a bad week for Reform
It’s no hyperbole to say the party has been in freefall since then. We could list every scandal they’ve suffered since reaching their peak, but given that the sun is set to explode and die out about four billion years from now, we’re not sure that there will be enough time to go through them all.
In 2026, the party has lost its polling advantage – and now finds itself lagging behind both Labour and the Tories in some of the more recent surveys. It has been a calamitous year, and if this weekend’s party conference proves anything, Reform are in a chaotic tailspin they simply cannot get out of.
Though it must be said, the Farage-led outfit did well in both the 2025 and 2026 Local Elections. There may have been a slight underperformance for the latter, but overall, Reform were the big winners. Alas, in the last four months, the fatigue has hit them hard – and it’s starting to show all over.
Mr. Farage’s personal approval ratings have plummeted alongside his party’s. In Parliamentary by-elections and major mayoral contests, they have failed to win over a majority of voters. The best Reform have to show for their summer is their leader beating a bloke with a bin on his head.
By-election flop for Reform, as party struggle in six contests
Outside of Clacton, the 62-year-old’s star seems to be on the wane.
There were six council by-elections held across the country last week. In all of them, Reform failed to place any higher than third, and only surpassed 15% of the vote once. Even then, they LOST support in a seat contested previously, shedding 3.5% of the backing received in Chesterton & Launton last year.
Councillors jump ship as electoral results plummet
If current trends continue, Reform will be heading for an almighty winter of discontent. Their cause at a local level also hasn’t been helped by the routine chaos witnessed across their various controlled councils. Amateurish leadership and glaring inexperience have caused PR nightmares for the party.
But perhaps the greatest threat to any of their remaining stability is the sheer number of councillors they’re losing at any given time. More than 5% of the cohort elected in 2025 had left the party within a year. And since the most recent Local Elections, this trend has continued unabated.
In the last month alone, 18 councillors have left Reform. Some have defected to Restore, others have been suspended for bad behaviour. One even quit due to the party’s ‘over-reliance on AI’. Ten of these have quit in the last week or so – leaving their grip of power in several regions weakened.
Figures shared by the @ReformExposed account on X/Twitter, and collated from the Open Council Data website, show just how close Reform are to LOSING overall majorities in several of their local authorities. One more councillor loss in in West Northamptonshire, for example, will cost them full control.
Which councils are at risk of falling under No Overall Control?
Other councils vulnerable to falling under ‘No Overall Control’ include East Northamptonshire (five away), alongside Durham and Suffolk (six away). In the last 16 months, councillor resignations have happened en masse rather frequently – and it doesn’t take long for the dominoes to fall.
Perhaps the greatest source of concern centres around Kent County Council. This was very much the flagship authority for Reform when they swept to victory here in May 2025. Since then, a glut of councillors have left, their DOGE experiment failed, and they are seven councillor losses away from the implausible.
Considering how the last year has panned out for Reform – none of these outcomes should be considered off the table.